Reasonable Republicans Restless

If, as they say, the three most important
factors in business success are location, location, and location, then
the three most important factors in political success are timing, timing
and timing.

The Dowbrigade has long been predicting a schism in
the Republican Party sometime before the elections in ’08, between the
Radical Republicans (neo-cons, fundamentalists and the oil industry)
and the Reasonable Republicans (basically everyone who still believes
in Evolution, funded by the traditional Republican money wells like Banking
and Insurance).

We are convinced that the Radical Republicans will attempt
to keep their revolution going by pushing through the nomination of members
of their inner circle. They lack the balls to go with Condi for the top
job, but will probably put her on the ticket to siphon off black and
female voters from the Dems. We wouldn’t be surprised to see First Brother
Jeb at the top, especially if arch-fiend Dick Cheney decides to stay
in the shadows.

The Democrats, sensing weakness in the White House,
are almost sure to nominate Hilary, hoping to recapture the Presidency
in a great leap forward for multiple liberal causes. The feeling here
is that they will have once again tragically misread the pulse of the
people, and the 2008 election will mark the demise of the Democrats as
a major American party.

The "X" factor are the full third of American voters
who are truly independents, as well as those Republicans who still believe
in traditional Republican values like non-interventionism and balanced
budgets, plus millions who normally don’t bother to vote.

By and large, these people will be equally horrified
by the prospect of seeing Hillary and the Sisterhood in the Big House,
as by the idea of four more years of war, gutting the economy and government
by the oil industry. Thereby creating a historic opportunity, not for
a new political party, but for a major part of the traditional Republican
Party to make a clean break and field their own candidates.

A ticket of John McCain and Colin Powell, for example,
could sweep the field, drawing from all of the traditional parties support
as well as scads of new recruits. We would bet they could beat Jeb and
Condi. Hillary would finish a poor third.

The main question in our mind was when the great schism
would take place.  We were imagining arcane machinations to create
an incident, or a court case, or a crisis to dramatically expose the
deficiencies and un American extremism of the current cabal, probably
some time next year.

Then we realized the illogic of waiting for or manufacturing
a crisis when there was one built into the calendar – the mid-term elections
in November of ’06. A disastrous showing by Bush-supported candidates
and radical conservatives, perhaps combined with an economic or military
mini-crisis, would be sufficient provocation for a split of the Republican
Party.

Almost certainly, the moderates will make an attempt
to win control of the Republican Party apparatus in time to choose one
of their own in ’08, but the betting here is that the Bushites will hold
firm to the reins of a reduced but fanatical core following.  They
have been spending much time and effort lately shoring up their grip
on the party’s political machinery. If so, the split is inevitable.

The minuet is already in motion.  Check out this
interview, given this week to ABC News by Colin Powell:

Sept. 8, 2005 – In 35 years of service as a soldier,
Colin Powell earned a reputation as the quintessential disciplined warrior.
As Secretary of State in President Bush’s first term, Powell was widely
seen as a disciplined, moderate – and loyal – voice for the administration.
Now out of government service, Powell is airing openly his disappointments
and frustration on everything from the invasion of Iraq to the federal
response to Hurricane Katrina.

from ABC

In political warfare, just as in military warfare, one
has to get the pieces into position, set the stage, so to speak, before
the real action starts. Political junkies, stay tuned.  This one’s
going to be wild.