Archive for September, 2005

The Galveston Hurricane of 2005

Thursday, September 22nd, 2005

In 1870, Indianola, Texas
was growing rapidly; a coastal town with 5,000 inhabitants.  Then
in 1975 it suffered the first of two massive storms, killing hundreds
and flattening the city.  It was rebuilt; but a second storm in
1886 caused residents to give it up altogether.  Today, thanks to
storm erosion, most of the original city is underwater.

In 1900, Galveston
had enjoyed even greater growth without disaster.  It had a
population of 42,000.  The city had worried about facing the same
fate as Indianola, but as decades passed without any serious storms at
all, some experts (including then-director of the Galveston Weather Bureau, Isaac Cline) suggested that hurricanes “could not” hit Galveston, for one reason or another.

That fall, an unnamed hurricane swept through town, killing around
8,000 people and flattening the city.  There were communication
problems back then… bridges and telegraph lines were cut, making it
hard to send messages to the mainland.  Once messengers did
arrive, they had a great deal of bureaucracy to negotiate, despite the
extraordinary damage.

The first message ran, “I have been deputized by the mayor and Citizen’s Committee of
Galveston to inform you that the city of Galveston is in ruins
.” The
messengers reported an estimated five hundred dead. This was considered
to be an exaggeration.

When rescuers arrived, they found thousands dead, instead. 
Funeral pyres were set up all around the city, and burned for
weeks. 

Since then, over the following century, the city has built up a 17-foot
high seawall, and raised the city some 4-5 meters with dredged
sand.  The seawall itself has become a tourist attraction, and
hotels and other tourist sites have been built along its length…
buildings along the main Galveston Strand are marked to indicate they
survived the hurricane.  So far, this has sufficed…

Losing to nature

“Nature will win if we decide that we can beat it.” –Bill Read, from the documentary  Isaac’s Storm

The pending storm produced by Hurricane Rita
boasts sea surges of over 30 feet (some have suggested 50), making the
seawall seem rather slender protection.  Galveston has built out
towards the water, not back away from it; and the whole city has fled
before the potential disaster. 

If history is any indicator, it will take another storm of similar size to change anyone’s habitation habits.  But perhaps architects and developers will learn to be more respectful to nature in laying out groundplans and designing seaside retreats.

GFDL places Rita directly over central Houston

Thursday, September 22nd, 2005

Hurricane Rita is apporaching the Gulf Coast, and will hit land somewhere between Texas’s Corpus Christi and New Orleans
Galveston, one of the country’s largest ports (New Orleans was the
largest), is the most vulnerable target, despite its protections
against normal storms.  Parts of Houston are also at risk, and the
early evacuation of Houston has lead to much of the clogging of roads
in southeast Texas.

The GFDL (an acronym for “Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory“),
is one of the key modern hurricane path-predicting models.  It is
a “limited-area baroclinic” model developed specifically for hurricane
prediction, including convective, radiative
and boundary layer parameterizations.  It makes special allowance
for
initializing the storm circulation.

GFDL is a ‘late‘ model, meaning that it is run with hard data, and not
with interpolations from earlier data… as of 10pm last night, the GFDL had Rita passing through central Houston and veering west once it comes level with Fort Worth.

UPDATE: Rita is veering East a bit, pushing it more directly towards Galveston and moving its water-heavy easterly side away from Houston.

Houston evacuation begins

Wednesday, September 21st, 2005

As of 6pm CST tonight, mandatory evacuations are in effect for “Zone A”
of Harris County.  Mandatory evacuations of Zones B and C will
follow as of 6am tomorrow. (notice)

Our house in Houston falls under the ‘suggested evacuation’ list, because it is in a low-lying area.

Rita is getting progressively stronger — currently
passing over a warm-water region that fed the last surge in Katrina’s
strength — and likely to exceed expectations of its strength.  See Jeff Master’s weather blog for more depressing coverage. 

And freenode is relocating, too; hopefully a temporary business.

Finnish delight

Wednesday, September 21st, 2005

From Deborah Elizabeth Finn, encyclopedic thoughts and a rec for a non-profit banner-ad generator.

Clusters of Knowledge

Friday, September 16th, 2005

Boston is host to the New England KM Cluster;
the next gathering is two weeks from now in Waltham.  The lineup
this time around is heavy with Berkman regulars, including both
Weinberger (as mentioned the other day) and Bill Ives

For those of you missing the good old days : Cesar Brea will be there too…  And .LRN, the prodigal child of OpenACS, always on the lookout for more pseudopods to grow, is represented there by Al Essa, covering “The Future of IT and Knowledge Networks“. 

See the full speaker list
online… not listed : yours truly, who will be causing trouble from
the safety of the audience.  Thanks to organizer John Maloney for
tipping me off to the event.  What I still want to know : where
are all the great KM systems of 1998?  Maybe I’ll find out…

The responsibility of government for the public safety

Friday, September 16th, 2005

“The responsibility of government for
the public safety is absolute, and requires no mandate.  It is in
fact the prime object for which governments come into existence.” — Churchill.

Timeless footage from last week: Keith Olbermann steps back from his normal perspective and delicately eviscerates federal leaders over their responses to Katrina.

And, crass but still almost as cathartic, here’s the ill will press on the subject. 

Arlington Wiki

Thursday, September 15th, 2005

Every city needs its own wiki; a single repository
for community information on its history, culture, landmarks and
ongoing events.  Arlington, for instance, needs its own
wiki.  The existing “Arlington Wiki” is dormant, part of a top-down Live from Arlington site.  On the other hand, the Arlington mailing list is active and the town is full of tech-savvy (and history-loving) people.

I brought up the idea tonight at the monthly meeting of a technical
advisory group.  I hope I didn’t offend anyone by suggesting that
a push-only website wasn’t the perfect model for an information
portal.  The “Citizen Needs” section of the seven-section Needs
Assessment the tech advisors carried out this past summer was voided,
rolled into the Town Website group… people decided that any citizen
needs would be covered by improved website design. 

Other citizen needs I can imagine :

  • the need for a place to post important citizen-to-citizen town announcements,
  • the need for a way to send public comments
    to the town (that others can see, add to, comment on) — this is being
    taken care of via the selection of a “customer response management:”
    tool (is that the acronym?),
  • the need for a collaborative, up-to-date city calendar
  • the need for better, more accessible archives of town data – property, legislative, judicial, executive
  • the need for public schedules and timelines
    for important ongoing tasks.  Example : the Arlington cemetery
    plots are expected to fill up in 10 years.  A number of
    representatives from the cemetery came to the Selectmen’s meeting on
    Monday to mention this, and point out that we should start thinking now
    about how to proceed in 5 years so we don’t run up against a real
    crunch.  This had apparently been brought up previosly, perhaps 5
    years ago, with no progress since… It is not enough
    to see a three-line summary of this request in the meeting minutes —
    there should be a timeline and suggestion-repository, updated whenever
    the relevant groups make progress towards the goal of finding a place
    to expand, which can be followed this year, next year, and for the
    coming decade… keeping track of each revision of any public documents
    and proposals involved.
  • the need for a good collaborative annotated map of the city — both at the present time and at key moments in history.  (For inspiration, see the Wikipedia project on geographical coordinates.)

Note that in each of these cases — as, indeed, in the case of the town
website itself — the services and information above could be provided
by third parties, asking for information independently and sharing it
with the world; not officially on government servers or part of a
government project.    But it makes a lot of sense for
the town government to directly provide,  facilitate, or cheerlead
such efforts, if for no other reason than that they are an important
part of a thriving community.  .

Wikimedia lights up Korean Yahoo! cluster

Thursday, September 15th, 2005

A few months after Yahoo! announced it was donating a passel of servers
to Wikimedia’s global network, along with rackspace and bandwidth in one of their Korean
server farms, the first of those machines have been set up and are
operating as squids. (see the network topology)

The yellow regions on the daily status graphs show traffic and requests being handled by the Korean cluster.

Viral regenerative power

Thursday, September 15th, 2005

Old news already : mice that regrow organs and limbs.  Injections of cells that can pass this power on to other mice.  It’s a hazy Australian dream; but also apparently an understated reality
Last weekend, Wistar Institute’s Ellen Heber-Katz presented a paper on these “MRL mice” at Aubrey de Grey’s Sens 2 conference.  If you come across the full text, let me know. 

“As long as we can choose our networks…”

Thursday, September 15th, 2005

I suppose that should be refined to “as long as we can choose what routes our traffic
takes…” — that is, which peers, what types of lines and routers, perhaps even what
last-mile providers.    It should be possible to say “if
there’s no way to send the following content along routes I trust,
don’t send it.
” 

You don’t have to be paranoid to want this.  You might distrust a
route because you expect it to attempt to reconstruct, alter, and
resend content; because you suspect it of not accepting content from
certain areas or sites, because you worry that it keeps track of what
you send when, without your permission…  You might not want to
send content through any router that doesn’t respect the “return
receipt” flag which sends back information on how your packets
travelled on their way to a destination. Or you might just not want to
support in any way certain traffic providers, explicitly asking to
patronize other providers whenever possible.

“I’ll take ‘Arlnet Secure Wifi’ from my
house to the Arlington Center hub, ‘Hub of the World’ or ‘OpenBelNet’
from there to the Harvard U. hub, ‘HU Internet2’ to the Cambridge
Internet2 backbone hub,  and any lines/routers run by WorldCom or
UUNet, or on the dynamic ‘Debian-Class1’ network list.”

“Oh, as for my other options and preferences:
  •   Latency : as long as total latency is under 3 seconds, stick to the above networks rather than leave them.
  •  
    I use Return-receipt packet delivery, which sends me back a packet for
    every packet I send out, announcing the route it’s taken, or that it’s
    been dropped.  This more than doubles my bandwidth bill, but has
    its advantages… feed the resulting datastream into a route-analyzer;
    and one can set up all sorts of useful triggers.  When my
    preferred routes are all down, I can opt to use secondary networks –
    either outside my normal prefs, or at a higher rate.  I can also
    tell my Net-enabled applications not to complete sensitive transactions
    if there have been any fishy routings in the past minute. (Besides,
    whenever my provider makes too many routing mistakes, I get a free
    month of service.)”

Implementing this would seem to take significantly more intelligent routers and middleware than currently exists.
   
For a great coverage of some of the topics brought up at the Web of Ideas discussion tonight, see Geoff Huston‘s killer essay on the finance of networks, with its diversity of options laid out in gory detail.