Sliding Into Second

Apparently,
as the race for the presidency tightens, the jockeying for position is
becoming intense.  Both campaigns are trying hard to push their
candidate into – second place.

This is to take advantage of the well-established "underdog
effect", where Americans tend to support the second-place, come-from-behind,
we-try-harder candidate. The optimal position on the eve of an American
elections seems to be just a bit behind, within the margin of error,
but a point or two below the opposition.

This maximizes turnout of partisans who feel that their
guy has a reasonable chance, but needs THEIR vote to pull it out. Latest
polling shows a hot contest for the coveted second slot….

The US election was thrown wide open today as a leading poll put John Kerry ahead
for the first time.

In a dramatic shift, George Bush has been overtaken by a single percentage point,
according to the ABC/Washington Post tracking survey.

It put Mr Kerry on 49 per cent, with President Bush down one point to 48 per
cent – an exact reversal of their standing yesterday.

from the London Evening Standard

(CNN) — The presidential race continues to be tight, with
President Bush possibly holding a slight lead over Sen. John Kerry among
likely voters, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup national opinion poll
released Monday.

Fifty-one percent of likely voters said they would back Bush, and 46
percent expressed support for Kerry.

The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the true leader
was unclear.

from CNN

(Dowbrigade note:  The accompanying photo, ripped
from Drudge, has nothing to do with the content of this posting – we
just really liked the picture. Even if he loses and has to slink back
to his Beacon Hill Townhouse, Kerry will have plenty of neat souvenirs and a hot heiress mama
to ease the agony of defeat….)