Marxism International

 the sign — and the caller — say “middle class”

Of all the Great Questions posed by the Great Philosophers over the entire panoply of Human Existence, two stand out:

“What, exactly, is a Middle Class?”                 

And: “When Will China Get One”?

Well, in both cases it depends upon who you talk to.    And the facts cited are wildly desparate.   Some say at present China’s middle class is largely a fiction due to the peculiarities of Chinese society and politics.   Others offer the opinion that, yes, some such animal does in fact exist, but most are unsure how large, how powerful or even what the standards of admissions are.

Seriously, though, it’s an important question to a lot of people.   China is by far the world’s fastest growing consumer market (India is too underdeveloped at this point to pose much of a challenge though that could change over the next two decades).   A growing middle class means to them a growing market.    On a whole host of issues , from energy consumption to transportation to health care needs, planners anxiously measure the growing needs of a newly affluent population against the forcasts of energy supplies.   Those who take a jaundiced view of the country’s ruling Communist Party take heart from the shibboleth that a growing middle class will demand more political freedoms that will subsequently (and fatally) undermine the party’s authority.

But, will it?   The trend in developing countries is toward one-party states.   The capitalist West favors those that are pro-market and succumb to the dictates of international capital (also known as “normal societies”).   But, there is a growing consensus that multi-party, capitalist “democracy” serves only the well-off, locally and internationally, in developing countries.   Further, it creates deep divisions within the social order, divisions that can be and are exploited by outside forces for their own ends.    Too, many are noting the social corrosion and paralysis that mark decision-making in the multi-party states.

My bet is that growing affluence will change how China is ruled, but not exactly in ways that will please the West.   Burgeoning nationalism (this has always been present, stoked by memories of China’s treatment at the hands of the Western powers during the colonial era in Asia) will in all likelihood be its most prominent feature.  

But, how far off is the day when China’s middle class will reckon as a force in national politics?

And, anyway, what is “Middle Class” in China?    And how big is it?

The size of the middle class in China has grown to include 11.9 percent of all employees in the country, according to a recent survey.

BNP Paribas, a French bank, defines members of China’s middle class as well-educated professionals with an annual income between 25,000 yuan (US$3,010) to 30,000 yuan (US$3,610), or household income between 75,000 yuan (US$9,040) to 100,000 yuan (US$12,050).

There were, according to a report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), 35.18 million middle class members in China last year, which is about 2.8 per cent of the total population.

According to the World Bank, only when urbanization is over 50 per cent and the service sector accounts for more than 50 per cent of the economy, is it possible for a middle class to become a mainstream, accountable social group.

And, there are skeptics.   He Qunglian, a renowned sociologist and a strident opponent of the Communists, concedes the mythic rise of a nascent Chinese middle class will probably make little difference in the country’s political ecology.

She believes that the Chinese middle class has three characteristics that distinguishes it from other countries.  Yes, as in the West, the wealth of a middle class is related to political power, though its role in decision-making should not be overstated.   However, China’s middle class has no group consciousness and therefore has no independent ideas, and it has no way or ability to express itself in public affairs. This makes the middle class dependent on political power, and it cannot initiate or promote political reforms in the short term.

Other studies confirm that indeed individual wealth is indeed growing in china, some estimates put that population at 200 million with those making an income of $12,000 a year or higher and is to be nearly 500 million by 2010.   Few,  however, are that optimistic.

It is important to note that the data most often cited (often from the same or similar sources) is frequently contradictory and points to a bewildering array of interpretations and possibilities.   But, it is probably safe to say that a Western-style Chinese “middle class”, promoting the values of the middle income Westerner, will safely remain a fiction for a long time to come.