Mr Lula, For the Time Being
Despite dire warnings, it appears that Brazilian labor bureaucrat turned President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will muddle through awhile longer. Everyone by now knows that he was involved up to his ears in various illegal financing schemes for his Workers Party (PT), both before, during and after the 2002 election which brought him to power. His televised speech yesterday convinced practically no one of the contrary. There is talk of resignation and impeachment, or, even perhaps, a deal with the opposition Social Democrats (PSDB) whereby Mr Lula would be allowed to limp to the end of his term with the proviso he would not seek re-election.
But, I think Lula will somehow hang on and, maybe, recover enough to run again in 2006. Why? First of all, there is simply no credible alternative, from either the Right or the Left. Mr Jose Serra is briefly riding a bit higher in the polls, but the Sao Paulo mayor (and PSDB kingpin) lacks the charisma of Mr Lula. Too, he enjoys far fewer friends in the international business community. The far Right opposition is in disarray. And, besides, Brazil’s bankers, as well as overseas investors, know that stepped-up attempts to administer the bitter medicine of the IMF without the syrupy chaser of “Lulaism” could in the long run prove counter-productive, even disasterous.
But, most importantly of all, is the fact that nearly all of Brazil’s 120 million voters stand outside the political system, either through illiteracy (more than 60% of them cannot read or write), or extreme penury (Brazil’s poverty rate rivals that of India). The elite, those who read magazines or talk to pollsters, or contribute to political campaigns, mask a wretched, seething mass that, unleashed in all its fury, would create a nightmare for capitalism that would dwarf the one it has been suffering in Venezuela or Bolivia or Argentina.
Capital, for the time being at least, needs left-winger Lula at the helm.