Taking Bearings

The world has little noticed, but the Ukrainian Civil war started in 2014 has never ended. Now, seven years after Ukraine first plunged into chaos that allowed Russia to invade the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and also annex Crimea by force, tensions are again escalating as Russians mass troops and weapons along the border.

In response, there has been a significant uptick in U.S. State Department and NSC contacts with Ukrainian counterparts and President Biden conferred by phone directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff called both his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts.

Moscow has issued a blunt warning against the use of NATO forces to counter its buildup or to intervene in any way.

This is certainly an early and unwanted test by Russian President Putin of the Biden Administration (the NSC staff is still filling out places and assignments). Whether it will amount to more than a “stare-in-the-eyes” contest test remains to be seen. Russia may also try to “quietly invade” Uranian territory by insert peacekeeping forces as it did following Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia last year. In any case what Russia may be testing is whether the U.S. would support using NATO troops or settle for sanctions that Russia may simply disregard as a cost of war.

References

Blinken Vows US Support for Ukraine in Call With Foreign Minister. Reuters

Russia Massing Troops on Border, Ukraine Warns. Agence France-Presse.

Russia warns NATO against deploying troops to Ukraine

Readout of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. April 02, 2021. The White House.

Related Work

Lerner KL. Kiev, Ukraine — Revolution And Rebellion In Ukraine. Taking Bearings. LMG (London, Paris, Cambridge). 2014.

Kiev, Ukraine protest camps,  2014.  K. Lee Lerner.©LMG All Rights Reserved.