Archive for the ‘Rhetoric’ Category

Prediction as Science

Tuesday, May 6th, 2008

Every now and then someone picks a fight with me about the epistemology of science. As a former physicist and current economist, I might be particularly touchy on this topic. But I’ve found myself comfortable with a simple position that efficiently resolves most debate.

Often at issue is that many scientists demand that we are searching for capital-T-Truth. Logic and mathematics are indeed about truth– or at least conditional truth– in the sense that very specific rules tell us what conclusions can be drawn from what premises. To the extent theorists (in physics or economics, say) just do math, that research is also about Truth. However, if the premises– the assumptions of the model– are wrong, that Truth may have no bearing on reality.

For all applied work– work that uses real-world data, sometimes to test various theories– my satisfying criterion is whether we’ve come up with a way to make reliable predictions.  Mixing hydrogen and oxygen gives you water and a bundle of energy:  that’s a reliable prediction.  The next solar eclipse will occur on August 1, 2008.  If a central bank prints a huge amount of money and pours it into an economy, inflation will result.
I care little about whether these are everlasting Truths.  (Sometimes predictions are possible because we’ve observed the same phenomenon repeatedly and reliably: under ordinary circumstances, putting a pot of water on a hot enough fire will cause the water to boil.  Sometimes predictions are possible because we have an encompassing underlying theory:  gravity assists can be used to send probes like Cassini to their destinations.  I guess I would say that to me those underlying theories represent something like Truth.)  Mostly, I just appreciate that science and scientists have learned enough to make these and other predictions about the world with very high levels of confidence.

Injustice on Stage in Stratford

Saturday, April 26th, 2008

I’ve needed the several weeks since the Friday, April 4, show to achieve sufficient composure to write about the Royal Shakespeare Company’s current incarnation of The Merchant of Venice in Stratford-upon-Avon. The play of course is inherently incendiary. I have nothing to contribute to the longstanding debate about whether the Bard was Anti-Semitic. But I left the Courtyard Theater that night horrified at this production’s choices, with only one possible source of redemption for it in sight (and, I fear, lost to near all the inattentive audience).

This production matter-of-factly illustrated every evil of a calculating Shylock. He was unfair and unsympathetic in his business dealings; he loved his daughter little, and his gold much; he would never share a table with a Gentile. Beyond the text, in the courtroom, when Shylock is about to use his knife to extract his pound of flesh, he perches above a prostrate Antonio who has his arms outstretched. This image, with Antonio as Christ, invokes the most pernicious of the historical calumnies against Jews.

After the lamb is saved, and Shylock’s level (pointed?) “Is it the law?” is answered affirmatively, the production lightly carries on to Portia’s and Nerissa’s practical joke and the standard comedic ending of multiple nuptials. Shylock appears again only in the musical reprise, interrupting a bit of the dancing to angrily twist arms with his new son-in-law.

What do director and cast hope to achieve with–what could be redemptive about– this portrayal of an irredeemable Shylock? My best speculation is that they wish to offend as thoroughly as Borat.

In contrast to John Peter of The Sunday Times, I didn’t find the production “sloppily directed,” but rather distressingly directed.  In contrast to Michael Billington of The Guardian, I found nothing to “enjoy” about this excruciating production. I’m not sure I could find anything enjoyable about any production of this play. But many wisely directed productions could give me leave to depart with faith in what humanity has learned, rather than fear about what it may have not.

Yes We Can

Monday, February 4th, 2008

Hooray.

Principled Resignations?

Tuesday, January 15th, 2008

One of many disappointments I’ve had during the current administration is the dearth of principled resignations.  No small number of Bush appointees have left their posts, but most have wanted “more time with their families” rather than a fire of vitriol.

Two examples are particularly obvious.  Christine Todd Whitman was sidelined at EPA, reduced from Republican moderate stardom to whining “it’s my party, too” after playing chief apologist for anti-environment crusades.  And Colin Powell’s four years as Secretary of State were an extended exercise in quietly suffering humiliation.

Would that they and others departed with flourish, perhaps even with the words of this brilliant, unsigned Time magazine piece from the pre-Watergate Nixon era channeling Nathan Hale: “I am sorry that I have only one job to give for my country.”

Fiction note #1

Sunday, September 16th, 2007

Kingsley Amis’s Roger Micheldene is a poor English cousin to Ignatius Reilly. Though both are supremely bloated on themselves, Roger is more self-aware (perhaps, older, owing to more time away from overprotective maternal influence), and unapologetically lacking in the consolation of philosophy. Some might appreciate One Fat Englishman for its charms, but for humor I’d say skip it in favor of rereads of Wodehouse, and for singular, hysterical experience John Kennedy Toole’s Confederacy of Dunces is supreme.

Blame Britain

Monday, August 20th, 2007

British territorial abdication following WWII caused disasters around the world. Two were particularly grievous.

First, the British failed to prevent partition of India and Pakistan or create conditions of safe passage for the religion-based mass migration that occurred. Hatred and fear during the exchange of 15 million people between the two new nations resulted in between 200,000 and 1 million deaths. The over-hasty British abdication on the subcontinent also caused a half-century of suspicion and war, now overhung with nuclear threat.

Second, the British let the Jews and Arabs fight it out in Palestine. The result was a tenuous state, surrounded by enemies, with millions of universally unwelcome refugees just across its borders.

Tired after WWII, and incapable of sustaining Empire, the British around the world just left. I do not quibble with their decision to depart; but for the tragedies their abdication of responsibility invited, we are more than fair to blame Britain.

Addendum:  Pankaj Mishra’s excellent recent review of Indian Summer by Alex von Tunzelmann concludes, “The rival nationalisms and politicized religions the British Empire brought into being now clash in an enlarged geographical arena; and the human costs of imperial overreaching seem unlikely to attain a final tally for many more decades.”

Civilizations have Libraries

Saturday, August 4th, 2007

People are people, and I love them all.  But today and historically, some collections of people have been described as “civilizations,” and some time ago (okay, okay, while hiking through beautiful scenery from friendly but rough village to friendly but rough town, craving a hot, clean shower and a net connection) I began to ponder what this word meant.

I concluded that, for me, the defining features of a civilization are persistent traditions and bodies of knowledge, of exactly the sort that are maintained, preserved, and shared in recognizable libraries.

Problems in prosperity

Saturday, July 28th, 2007

My mom sometimes distinguishes between “problems that money can solve, and problems that money can’t solve.” Usually, in prosperity, she makes the distinction when discussing a costly problem of the former type, in order to reassure. Usually, in prosperity, this works.

In addition, the suggestion to think of problems this way is interesting to me. After all, money spent to solve any given problem won’t be available for solving future problems– or satisfying any other future needs or desires. Psychologically, I think the suggested distinction works because those future losses are easy to ignore. Distant and non-specific, it isn’t necessary to think of them in detail (and might not even be possible).

To put it differently, the psychological trick seems to actually reassure to the extent one thinks one is unconstrained. If the budget constraint already doesn’t bind, what difference does it make if you need to make an expenditure that moves you slightly closer to the constraint?  Lacking prosperity, I bet the distinction would be immaterial– and I bet it would sting.

Marriages, Civil Unions, and Contracts

Tuesday, July 17th, 2007

Somehow the debate about gay marriage seems to have quieted. Surely this state of affairs is temporary. When the debate resumes, what light can be shed in terms of the virtues of freedom and justice and the science of economics?

First, a note that it’s not clear or uncontroversial what “marriage” means. Dictionary.com has wholly ten definitions; Merriam-Webster has at least a couple that are relevant. Both refer once or more to a “legal and social institution.” I’ll take this to mean that (from a policy perspective) marriage is a form of contract.

This definition is fortunate, since economics hasn’t come up with much worthwhile to say about love, but has a whole lot of good insight into contracts. Economics (and the New Institutional Economics, specifically) teaches us that governments should enforce contracts but leave people with the freedom to devise contracts pretty much however they wish. To the extent a marriage results in a set of contractual rights and responsibilities, economic theory suggests that any individuals (ie, individuals of any sexual orientation, and any number of individuals) should be free to marry.

From this perspective, the right policy solution in relation to marriage is to have the state do what it ordinarily does: enforce contracts. Moreover, it should make no difference to the state whether those contracts are called marriages, civil unions, domestic partnership agreements, or something else. To minimize conflict (really!), I would favor the state ignoring “marriage” entirely, and recognizing only some contract labelled with a less inflammatory name like “civil union.”

Having reserved the state’s ordinary role to the state, it is fitting that we reserve the ordinary role of private community institutions to private community institutions. These institutions, including churches, mosques, and synagogues, define memes and respond with speed and grace to what their members wish. Giving their members the thrill and honor of marriage, however they define it, should be their right entirely, not the government’s.

Blind Forgetfulness?

Wednesday, April 4th, 2007

Seeking the origins of canonical machine translation errors, I came across this nice history (pdf). In short, the origins of “invisible insanity” and “rotten meat” seem to be unknown, fogged by time.