Damning the River

The trip ended the way it began, with a similarly bad loss.  The money I budgeted for the trip and the money I received as a poker present are gone, but I was thoroughly entertained for 18 total hours this trip and I didn’t spend beyond my budgeted means – what really bugs me is the losing.  A couple of notes to sum up what I’m thinking about aftewards:

1.  One play has really gotten to me – AQo, with JT47 on board, including two diamonds, with 9 bb bets in the pot on the turn.  Here’s the dilemma for me.  If the diamond draw is out there, that reduces all of my draws.  Also, given that there is a bet and a call into me, there’s probably a pair out there.  Maybe even one that reverse dominates my Ace.  What’s more, if I pair my Queen, that puts three to a straight out there.  If you were to count my inside straight draw as four outs, and add 3 outs for the combined overcards, that’s 7 outs, plenty of odds to call.  If you discount the overcards for the reasons suggested, that’s just 4, and would be barely enough if you imagine both players calling on the river for 11 bb bets implied odds.  I’d feel better if I could imagine them both betting and calling in front of me again so I could trap for 3-4 bets. If you discount the K of diamonds, that’s a mere three outs, probably not enough.  Not to mention the 3/4 of a BB rake.  So I fold and the K of hearts shows up, sure enough.

First, why was I talking myself out of all these outs in a pre-flop raised pot with two callers on the flop and two staying with me until the river?  Why was I assuming the worst case scenario?  Maybe it would have been a long term unprofitable call, but I think I became way too paranoid about all my draws not being good, even it is actually was right to fold (which I’m not sure it was).  Second, why, later in the game, was I thoughtless with these draws in somewhat smaller pots?  Where’s the balance in my approach – not too paranoid but not too fearless either?  Was I tilting? What’s going on?  It’s not the decision so much that bothers me, because in context, given how I felt about the players that I was against, it might have been right – but my approach to the decision in the first place seems wrong.

This is connected to my main problem applying Ed Miller, which is the balance between not leaking chips, and remembering that a lost bet can be at worst just one lost bet, but folding is at worst an entire large pot, and, moreover, forfeits your current pot equity.  I do not think I am applying this balance properly at all.  I find that, for the most part, I played pretty well all week, and did lose a lot because of just a bad string of cards as well as bad luck with my moderate, good, and great hands.  It happens.  But it’s compounding all that with decisions that could cost me 10 BB and at most lose 1 BB – compounding it with bone head plays.  That’s what really bugs me.

2.  Related point: how can I tell what’s attributable to a bad swing and what’s attributable to bad play?  The former makes me think, I’ll get em next time, so just keep going ahead.  The latter makes me think, there is no right time to sit down if you are not a good enough player.  The right answer is some of each.  Keep going ahead, but practice more – keep thinking.  Don’t use luck as an excuse to play beyond your means, but don’t use bad play as a reason to play scared or doubt yourself completely. 

I think it’s time for some non-casino play, and hopefully some time in a regular game.  Hopefully with some amicable people at school willing to chat about the concepts – I find discussing plays with others helps.  I want to play in that environment, or bonus whoring online – haven’t even tried that yet, though I wouldn’t want to play with anything more than the bonus whore money.

3.  Related again: losing big in the short term is hard in a game that’s all about winning long term.  It’s hard to situate this setback in the context of my attempts to become long-term profitable.  My grandmother’s fallacious composition, “Well, if you’re losing in the short run, doesn’t that just add up to losing in the long run?” has some truth in it.  That is, if you’re a perpetual short run loser, you are by definition a long term loser.  But how I do I get a sense of how bad a swing is?  From talking to friends, it doesn’t seem THAT bad – then again, I consider those friends to be better than I am, so they will ride out that swing. 

4.  Why were these losses much bigger than in July? I suppose I played a lot more and I always played in 2/4 instead of 1/3.  But I played worse in July in some ways.  Was it because I’m being more aggressive, a la Ed Miller, and thus have a better chance to win bigger? Or was I misapplying Ed Miller, making myself more likely to lose bigger all the time than a weaker Lee Jones-centered approach? 

Yesterday, I had a terrible first three hours, that basically depleted most of my bankroll – couple suck outs that really damaged me.  Then, I spent the next three hours siphoning off half what I lost in the first three, with just no good cards to play most of the time and winning a whole two pots, one semi-large one small.  Was it just that shift that led to the different losses during similar segments of time?   

Okay, that feels a bit better.  This is all rather silly feeling, because I read all these other poker bloggers who just seem to get it and have no trouble.  I’m sure they had to work hard for awhile to get there, and I still have confidence that I can be a long term profitable player, with enough time and practice.  Not now, but eventually.  I guess it’s better to start off a loser than to win at first and think I’m doing everything right, right?  Well, at this point, it wouldn’t feel bad to win for a change.  In due time.

Filed by at 8:58 pm under dtrStories
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