A fast business jet niche

Aerion has a supersonic business jet concept and a launch customer, Osama bin Laden’s half brother no less.

For $80m, you get an eight to 12 seat plane with 4,000 nm range and a top speed of Mach 1.6.  (Most business jets fly at Mach 0.85 or so.)  One technical problem is the sonic boom, which restricts the plane to sub-sonic speeds over populated areas.  Still, the advantage of flying at Mach 0.98 versus 0.85 saves you forty minutes flying across the US, for example.

But the real advantages are on over water routes.  According to Aerion’s claims,  they shave over three hours off of a trans-Atlantic flight, flying Paris-NY in 4 hours and 14 minutes.  NY – Miami over water is an hour and a half, an hour less than conventional business jets.

My time isn’t valuable enough that it’s worth some fraction of $80m to save an hour to get to Miami, but that time is probably worth it to someone, or at least they can think so.  And the bragging rights of owning a supersonic jet of your own: priceless.

More on Very Light Jets: Hardware, Software, and Networks

Jon Udell has an interesting post and podcast with Ed Iacobucci of DayJet, an air taxi startup.  Iacobucci, it turns out, is the founder of Citrix and led the OS/2 team at IBM.  DayJet is what you fantasize about during travel delays; a point-to-point small jet service that lets you skip the big hubs and go directly from your local general aviation field to the general aviation field closest to your actual destination.  Well, what I fantasize about during travel delays.

Udell’s post makes much of the complexity of the operations research routing problem that DayJet has to solve in order to be successful, but a subsequent post touches on the hardware issue.  That is, DayJet needs a particular hardware “platform” — in this case, a small inexpensive jet — in addition to the software.  The arrival of Very Light Jets (VLJs) such as the Eclipse 500 that DayJet is using is supposed to usher in this new age.

The analogies with personal computers and the rise of networks and the Internet are not lost on either Udell or Iacobucci.  In fact, they talk about passengers as packets, which is a little disconcerting.

The private jet market has now taken off, if you’ll pardon the pun, outside of the US, with strong growth for fractional ownership players such as NetJets in Europe and dramatically increased orders from Asia. Honeywell [.ppt] projects 1,000 new jet deliveries in 2007, and over 1,300 in 2008, both records.  Apparently, the biggest growth is forecast for the two extremes of the market; for the largest private jets, especially with inter-continental range, and for the smallest jets, including VLJs.

But, note this tidbit from Joe Sharkey in the New York Times:

In a recent interview, Mr. Santulli of NetJets marveled at the vast wealth driving this growth. He also said that not all of the big long-range luxury jets, like Gulfstreams, are ferrying teams of executives across the seas.

“Take a wild guess. What do you think the most common city pair for our Gulfstream fleet is?” he asked.

“New York to L.A.?” I replied.

“Not even close. It’s New York to Washington, D.C.,” he said.

Humanity’s map


Satirical map of humanity

Beautiful, obsessive, map of the thoughtful world, by James Turner, mixing place and ideas and emotion and so much else. And it’s hilarious. To the north is goodness; wisdom to the west, reason to the east. Utopia, a small atoll, is between them (capital: Aircastle). To the south is Hedonism and Abomination. At the center of the world, you have Constantinople, Hollywood, Xi’an, the Hearst Ranch, and Olympus in the Pride district, next to the Gulf of Arrogance.

Across the Strait of Nationalism, lies Elysium (major cities: Verdun, Arras, Basra, Minsk, and Lvov), bordered by the regions of Cruelty, Tyranny, and Destruction. Sadism and Torture are districts of Destruction; Van Dieman’s Land is in between Sadism and Vengeance.

To the west, across the Strait of Kinsey (!), is the land of Hedonism. Major cities include Rio de Janeiro, New Orleans, Amsterdam, and Los Angeles. Abandonment lies just off-shore, Madagascar-like. To the south are the districts of Lies (capital: Watergate), Delusion, Gluttony (Graceland, City of McDonalds, and Fattiburg), with the Gulag Archipeligo to the southmost.

I suspect the hand of Finbar in all this: to the northeast, in the Sea of the Short-Sighted, by the Island of Magical Thought, lies Cork City all by its lonesome at about 50’N, 115’E.

Hawaiians to America?

The Honolulu Advertiser is reporting a study that suggests a Polynesians origin of New World chickens. When Spaniards arrived in South America, the Incas had chickens; the question has been, where did they come from? They weren’t indigenous. Did they come over from Asia? (Our domestic chicken is descended, I believe, from wildfowl of Southeast Asia, but I’m not sure — I have seen chicken-like birds in the forests of Laos, though.) Or, did they come on Polynesian seafaring canoes?

The new research, by Alice Storey at the Univ. of Auckland, indicates that chicken bones found at a 14th century archeological site in southern Chile are of Polynesian origin. This means that Polynesian (from Hawaii? or Easter Island? does Easter have chickens?) sailors reached the west coast of South America on one of their incredible voyages. There have been suggestive hints of this in the past — the sweet potato is American and cultivated in Polynesia, for example — but this is the first evidence for Polynesians in the Americas.

Now, to find those pre-Cook Spanish galleons in Hawaii…

[4 Sept 08 update:  these findings have been disputed.]

Tim O’Reilly : open source :: Tony Wheeler : vagabonding

I think Ed Buryn’s term, “vagabonding” has a nice ring to it, but it never really took off; Europeans tend to call it “backpacking” but that means wilderness travel to me. Formally, you might call it “independent travel” to distinguish it from packaged tours and the like but independent travellers have been around forever and that doesn’t really catch the sense of it.

I’m thinking more specifically of the young kids from Australia and Denmark and Israel and Japan anVagabondingd even the US who drop out for months or years at a time to travel all over the world, on the cheap. They stay in youth hostels in big European cities and crummy motels on Khao San Rd. in Bangkok and take overnight buses to distant beach towns on the promise of full moon raves and they stink of patchouli and worse. I have often said that when I die and go to hell there are going to be a couple of German hippies there with dayglo backpacks complaining about the room rates.

Whatever you call it, Lonely Planet has played an instrumental role in the evolution of the hippy trail over the past thirty years. They are the main source of documentation on this essentially grassroots movement. There is no corporate sponsorship. Vagabonding is not written about in the travel section of your local newspaper or in Conde Nast Traveller or your inflight airline magazine. This travelling phenomenon predated Tony and Maureen Wheeler, and they have only chronicled parts of it in their iconic guidebooks, but they’ve done so in such detail and for so long, and without real antecedents, that it’s hard to imagine life on the road without LP. Ed Buryn’s Vagabonding pre-dated the Wheelers’ efforts, but his was more of a musing on the art of travel and less of a practical guide, and in any event he didn’t follow up with more and more and more guides so that eventually you had not only a Lonely Planet India but a Lonely Planet Trekking in India and a Lonely Planet Goa and so on and on. In many parts of the world, there are better guidebooks, and there are few places where there aren’t at least alternatives to the Lonely Planet offering, but LP still, after all these years, retains enough authenticity and authority that it’s probably the default choice for independent travellers in most of the world.

And in some places, like Burma, it’s really the only choice, and you can see how influential the Wheelers’ little publishing empire really is. I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that most travellers to Burma see the country through the eyes of Tony Wheeler. (He wrote parts of the Burma book himself, but by extension this is true with the rest of the catalog.) The literature on Burma in the west is pretty thin; what people know about Burma is largely what they read in their guidebook. And where they go is where their guidebook tells them. Now, it’s worth debating whether the guidebook is following the hippies or the other way around. I suspect that in many places the hippies came first. In Burma, I’m not so sure.

But in either case, one interesting characteristic of this understudied phenomenon is how regularized it is. One of the original hippy trails, the one that the Wheelers travelled before they wrote their first book, Across Asia on the Cheap, went from London via Istambul and Kabul to Kathmandu. Now, of course, that route is no longer possible, although Tony Wheeler, bless his heart, is working on a new edition of Lonely Planet Afghanistan. But the same places — the Thamel hippy ghetto in Kathmandu, for example — that were on the trail thirty years ago are still there. Bangkok is a big bustling dynamic city, but the little hippy ghetto there, Khao San Road, has likewise remained intact over the years. I haven’t been to Istambul but I would be willing to bet that the same dynamic has occurred there; I used to know the name of a restaurant that “everyone” went to in Istambul, even though I’ve never been within a thousand miles of the place. Hippies pick nice places, as Buryn observed. It should be a formal rule, “Buryn’s Rule”, from page 197 of the first edition of Vagabonding: “hippies do have excellent taste in selecting places to hang out.”

And for routes that are still possible, the independent travellers follow them with a consistency that would imply more formal organization. Anyone who has travelled like this knows what I mean: you end up in the same hotels in the same cities with the same people, hundreds of miles and weeks apart. It’s like being on a packaged tour without a guide. I know that you weren’t like that, but all the others were, right?

Now, the analogy is not exact, but there are interesting parallels between this independent traveller phenomenon and the open source movement, especially in the role that Lonely Planet and O’Reilly play. You wouldn’t think, at first thought, that books would be all that important in either case, especially in software. But a quick glance at my bookshelf yields Garfinkel’s PGP book, an old copy of Unix in a Nutshell, Peter Morville’s Polar Bear book on Information Architecture, the Camel book (Perl), a book on UML, and a couple of others — all from O’Reilly. And I’ve got probably two dozen Lonely Planet guidebooks, including a couple (Bushwalking in Papua New Guinea?) that were more aspirational than useful. Well, come to think of it, you could put the Perl book in that category too.

O’Reilly, like Lonely Planet, has played several roles in their (open source) community, first as documentarian and later as distiller and promoter of trends. O’Reilly books and conferences — and even, briefly, software — have been focal points for open source software. Open source would have happened without O’Reilly and it’s useless to speculate how it would have been different, but I think it’s worth noting that their books have been guides to Perl and Linux for open source hackers in very much the same way that Lonely Planet’s books have been guides independent travellers in Yunnan and Baja California.

Both O’Reilly and Lonely Planet carved out a profitable niche selling guidebooks to a chaotic and unstructured, but obviously underserved, market and each helped to define or describe those markets (or movements) through their guides.

Neither the open source movement nor the vagabonding movement are formally organized but they both show signs of complex, emergent patterns, like slime molds or the organization of cities themselves. They both also have clearly defined ideals and social mores, shared senses of group identities, and common enemies. Even though neither group is uniform — they’re both really groups of groups of groups — they’re clearly distinct, with regular patterns of behavior.

They’re both grassroots systems, occasionally idealistic, and young. Both have necessary pragmatic streaks: you have to cope for yourself on the road and you have to write good code yourself in the open source community. I don’t want to extend the analogy too far because they are not that closely related; but I think it is interesting the parallels between the two book publishers, Wheeler from Lonely Planet and Tim O’Reilly from O’Reilly Media, at the center of both phenomena.