I have just read an interesting article “2007 Harvard MBA Indicator Reiterates Long-Term ‘Sell’ Signal”, by Ray Soifer’95, HBS. at www dot soiferconsulting dot com
In the article, he corelate the Wall Street’s performance with the career choice by the HBS graduates. It is fun to read at least regardless of the accuracy of the prediction. He mentioned that
“If 10% or less of the year’s class take market-sensitive jobs (which I identify, using the Business
School’s current reporting categories, as investment banking, investment management,
hedge funds, sales & trading, venture capital, private equity or leveraged buy-outs), that’s
a long-term ‘Buy’ signal. If 30% or more do so, that’s a long-term ‘Sell’ signal.”
He also provided some data to prove his idea, such as “Historically, the Harvard MBA indicator has been more prolific as a source of ‘Sell’ Signals than ‘Buy’ signals. The last time it reached the 10% ‘Buy’ level was in the early 1980s, when the Dow traded below 1,000.”
Whether his theory true or not, we have to wait and see what will happen in the near future.