{"id":1548,"date":"2004-09-02T17:56:59","date_gmt":"2004-09-02T21:56:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/nateptest\/2004\/09\/02\/gallup-insights-into-election\/"},"modified":"2004-09-02T17:56:59","modified_gmt":"2004-09-02T21:56:59","slug":"gallup-insights-into-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/2004\/09\/02\/gallup-insights-into-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Gallup insights into election"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/p>\n

The Gallup organization has gleaned eleven insights into the electorate<\/a> from its recent rounds of polls.  Here are some highlights that I find socio-politically fascinating:<\/p>\n

\n

4. Moderate Republicans constitute a relatively small but important target segment of voters in this election. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Moderate Republicans (that is, Republicans who describe their
\npolitical views as “moderate” or “liberal”) constitute about a third of
\nthe group of Republican likely voters in Gallup’s recent polling, and
\nare somewhat cross-pressured by the conflict between their party
\naffiliation and their ideology. Gallup polling finds that moderate
\nRepublicans are about three times as likely as conservative Republicans
\n(25% vs. 9%) to be swing voters (that is, either undecided or willing
\nto consider changing their vote). Additionally, 13% of moderate
\nRepublicans say they will vote for Kerry, compared with 4% of
\nconservative Republicans. All of this suggests that moderate
\nRepublicans are less likely to be locked into a vote for the party and
\nare therefore more susceptible to campaign blandishments from both
\nsides. <\/p>\n

6. Public opinion has turned slightly more supportive of U.S. involvement in Iraq. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Fifty-one percent of Americans now say that the situation in Iraq
\nwas worth going to war over. In early May, that number was 44%. <\/p>\n

Similarly, the two most recent Gallup Polls have shown that about
\n50% of Americans believe that the U.S. involvement in Iraq was not<\/em>
\na mistake. That is up from three polls in late June and early July when
\nonly about 45% thought that sending troops to Iraq was not a mistake,
\nand the “mistake” number was up to 54%. <\/p>\n

Bush is now in his strongest position vis-<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Gallup organization has gleaned eleven insights into the electorate from its recent rounds of polls.  Here are some highlights that I find socio-politically fascinating: 4. Moderate Republicans constitute a relatively small but important target segment of voters in this election. Moderate Republicans (that is, Republicans who describe their political views as “moderate” or “liberal”) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":709,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politicks"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5G3PH-oY","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/709"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1548\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/natep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}