{"id":97,"date":"2007-12-12T00:10:58","date_gmt":"2007-12-12T04:10:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/mesh\/2007\/12\/iranian-and-nukes-common-sense-trumps-intel"},"modified":"2007-12-16T11:49:21","modified_gmt":"2007-12-16T15:49:21","slug":"iran_nukes_common_sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/2007\/12\/iran_nukes_common_sense\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran and nukes: common sense trumps ‘intelligence’"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Raymond Ibrahim<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Much of the current debate surrounding Iran\u2019s nuclear aspirations is informed by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report<\/a> which \u201cjudge[s] with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.\u201d While such reports tend to be accepted as authoritative\u2014witness the ongoing political maelstrom caused by it\u2014it is imperative to bear in mind that they are ultimately subjective, sometimes built atop the flimsiest evidence. Even the report is prefaced with the following caveat: \u201cThese assessments and judgments generally are based on collected information, which often is incomplete or fragmentary\u2026 In all cases, assessments and judgments are not intended to imply that we have \u2018proof\u2019 that shows something to be a fact or that definitively links two items or clauses.\u201d<\/p>\n

And so the report relies on \u201cestimative language,\u201d with words like \u201cprobably,\u201d \u201clikely,\u201d \u201cmight,\u201d and \u201cmay,\u201d predominating, and a continuum of predictions ranging from \u201cremote\u201d to \u201calmost certainly.\u201d Still, the report admits that, \u201cA \u2018high confidence\u2019 judgment is not a fact or certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong\u201d\u2014such as when NIE stated in 2005 (two years after \u201cTehran halted its nuclear weapons program\u201d) that \u201c[We] assess with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n

All intelligence analyses aside, however, when it comes to the issue of whether Iran means to acquire nukes, a bit of common sense is all that\u2019s requirement. Indeed, in certain situations, \u201cintelligence\u201d can be, if not superfluous, misleading.<\/p>\n

Common sense, on the other hand, dictates that any<\/em> nation\u2014especially under-privileged, non-Western countries\u2014would simply love<\/em> to posses nuclear weapons. After all, once all the niceties and impotent talk at the UN fail, we still live in a world where military might is the ultimate deciding factor in all international affairs. And nuclear armaments are the ultimate expression of military might. Might is what allowed the US to invade Iraq (partially based, incidentally, on faulty intelligence), despite the lack of widespread support at the UN. That said, the international desire to acquire nuclear weapons is, quite ironically, most downplayed and misunderstood in the West, which itself is armed to the teeth with nukes.<\/p>\n

This is not altogether surprising: whoever takes something for granted is often unaware of how eager others are to have it. And so, while a liberal and secular West may think that the ultimate answer to humanity\u2019s problems revolves around ending poverty and respecting all religions and creeds alike (since none of them are true anyway), under-privileged nations still maintain the traditional approach: might makes right. Hence, the desire for nukes.<\/p>\n

When it comes to Islamist regimes, such as Iran, the desire to acquire mankind\u2019s ultimate expression of power should be even more obvious. Not only do they share the same \u201csurvival of the fittest\u201d mentality of under-privileged nations\u2014often coupled with feelings of cultural superiority and disdain for the \u201cother,\u201d which manifest as extreme nationalism and xenophobia\u2014but Islamic texts only augment these traits by giving them divine sanctioning. In other words, if under-privileged nations would love nothing more than to acquire the ultimate expression of power\u2014with all the accompanying security, prestige, and wealth\u2014how much more can be expected from theocracies whose constitutions are based on a text that preaches nothing less than world dominance (see Koran 9:5 and 9:29<\/a>, for example, and the exegetical consensus surrounding them)?<\/p>\n

An August report<\/a> by the Congressional Research Service highlights claims that \u201cAhmadinejad believes his mission is to prepare for the return of the 12th \u2018Hidden\u2019 Imam, whose return from occultation [i.e., \u201chiding\u201d] would, according to Twelver Shi\u2019ite doctrine, be accompanied by the establishment of Islam as the global religion.\u201d In other words, Iran\u2019s leadership is pushing for the apocalypse. Moreover, Ahmadinejad has made clear his intention of seeing Israel wiped off the map, in accordance with the eschatological (and canonical) hadith wherein Muhammad said \u201cThe Hour [Judgment Day] will not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and until the Jews hide behind the trees and rocks and the trees and rocks will say, \u2018O Muslim, O Servant of God! Here are the Jews! Come and kill them!\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

So are we to ignore all this\u2014ignore all common sense and insight into human nature, ignore religious conviction\u2014and instead rely on a report which judges (with \u201chigh confidence\u201d) that Tehran halted its nuclear program in 2003? As to Iran\u2019s intentions<\/em>, which are the real issue, the NIE report leaves the door wide open: \u201c[W]e do not know whether it [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.”<\/p>\n

When it comes to the human realm, \u201cobjective\u201d science cannot always help; the irrational is, and always will be, a predominant factor in human relations that cannot be quantified and analyzed. But a little cognizance of human nature\u2014common sense\u2014goes a long way.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: Yes, Iran wants to acquire nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Raymond Ibrahim Much of the current debate surrounding Iran\u2019s nuclear aspirations is informed by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report which \u201cjudge[s] with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.\u201d While such reports tend to be accepted as authoritative\u2014witness the ongoing political maelstrom caused by it\u2014it is imperative to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1620,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[622,2223],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-97","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran","category-nuclear"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1620"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/mesh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}