Taking Bearings
type: channel
description: with K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-06-24T22:46:40Z
update period: hourly
update frequency: 1
update base: 2000-01-01T12:00+00:00
items: Russia: Wagner Group insurrection (updated)
items: Russia and Ukraine edge toward a radiologic abyss
items: Wave-particle duality
items: Recommended reading and veritas incommodum on nuclear power and the harm done by “activists.”
items: Layers of History
items: The baton is passed: The shame-stick of anti-science has changed hands
items: Rosalind Franklin’s contributions to the discovery of DNA’s structure revised
items: Florida Lawmakers Claim Museum Director Violated Florida’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Law
items: Trust, but verify: ChatGPT can be a powerful tool, but also one that leads students and researchers astray
items: Gun Policy update. “Come and read it”
items: San Antonio, Texas — Remember the Alamo: Both the Heroic Sacrifice and Historical Uncertainties
items: Scattershooting with Presidential couplets…
items: The forgotten threat of nuclear winter
items: Reading Caesar
items: Scattershooting on the science supporting, and perils of, vegetarianism and veganism
items: Briefing points: Explosions and gas leaks in the Baltic Sea
items: Honor due: Queen Elizabeth II
items: Who speaks for Earth? Renewable energy also carries costs and perils
items: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant perils part of novel challenges regarding nuclear safety
items: Wikipedia Remains the Wild West
items: Happy Independence Day: In the land of the free, we still must choose to be free
items: U.S. Border Policies: It’s not just political power that’s at stake, it’s human lives.
items: What does the data tell us about the “good guy with a gun stopping a bad guy with a gun” scenario
items: Hispanic rejection of exploitive identity politics may save us all
items: Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon
items: Memorial Day Reflections
items: Defense Challenges Multiply – Part 1
items: Insurrection, Coup d’état, Revolution: Know the difference
items: Iran’s nuclear capabilities: “I say it here, it comes out there”
items: Putin’s take it or break it strategy in Ukraine and his perilous nuclear options

Russia: Wagner Group insurrection (updated)
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-06-23T20:28:37Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Well …. You know it’s bad when state-owned RT covers it as an “armed coup.” This armed insurrection is fair repayment to Putin for relying on a convict army to do his thuggish will. The Wagner Group reveals itself to be the prison-based cultural cohort we knew it to be. Read the article(s) linked in […]
encoded: Well …. You know it’s bad when state-owned RT covers it as an “armed coup.” This armed insurrection is fair repayment to Putin for relying on a convict army to do his thuggish will. The Wagner Group reveals itself to be the prison-based cultural cohort we knew it to be. Read the article(s) linked in comments. While Putin may reap what he sows, Americans blindly pulling for the Wagner Group to take control have no grasp of the potential consequences. This is not the group you want taking control of Russia. <img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-1195 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/IMG_8965-300x204.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="204" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/IMG_8965-300x204.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/IMG_8965-768x523.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/IMG_8965-1024x697.jpg 1024w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/IMG_8965.jpg 1170w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />Prigozhin’s units are grounded and in Russia’s prison culture, where “brutally imposed caste systems govern life and death” and where society is dives into blatniye (thieves), muzhiki (men), kozliy (billy goats), and petukhi (roosters). Highly recommended reading: Kristaps Andrejsons. “Russia’s Convict-Soldiers Have Their Own Brutal Rules.” Foreign Policy. May 16, 2023. P.S. Americans: This is what an “armed insurrection” actually looks like. The Wagner Group won’t be leaving at curfew. ====== Updates: Russia tightens security in and around Moscow. All mass outdoor events scheduled before 1 July are cancelled. The mayor of Moscow warns residents not to travel. In a televised address to the nation, Putin characterized Prigozhin’s actions as a “betrayal” and “treason” and promised to punish rebels. ===== 24 June 2023 ===== According to Russian TV channel Rossiya 24, after his public statements…

Russia and Ukraine edge toward a radiologic abyss
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-06-23T18:56:55Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has demonstrated Churchill-ian and Reagan-esque leadership qualities since the Russian invasion in 2022. I’ll have more to say about this down the road, but it has been a long time since we’ve seen an essential quality of leadership — the ability to act like a leader — so aptly demonstrated on the […]
encoded: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has demonstrated Churchill-ian and Reagan-esque leadership qualities since the Russian invasion in 2022. I’ll have more to say about this down the road, but it has been a long time since we’ve seen an essential quality of leadership — the ability to act like a leader — so aptly demonstrated on the world stage. But one must always remember that truth is often the first casualty of conflict. Both the Ukrainians and Russians know the power of propaganda, and they both exploit it. Don’t read my caution in this regard as a lessening of my support for Ukraine in this particular conflict. My support is unequivocal, but that does not mean that information from the conflict needs simply swallowed before being well chewed. We know Russia’s RT is a propaganda machine, but I’ve also seen many Western media reports over the past year that uncritically devolve to simple cheer-leading for Ukraine that could also end in disaster for Ukraine. Dating to the Soviet era, Russian use of propaganda, disinformation, and misinformation is both reflex and operational norm. Moreover, anyone who thinks his own country does not engage in such activities is, at best, profoundly naive. Especially early on, Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian leadership were desperate (and they still face long odds). In such, circumstances it is important for a leader to be out ahead of the news. <img decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-1187 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-09.18.31-300x168.png" alt="Ukrainian President Zelenskyy " width="300" height="168" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-09.18.31-300x168.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/Screen-Shot-2023-06-23-at-09.18.31.png 693w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />With such cautions noted, President Zelenskyy yesterday warned via Twitter that “We have just had a report fr…

Wave-particle duality
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-06-18T01:25:42Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Of all my lectures on physics, my favorite to deliver is on wave-particle duality. The Q/A is always fun. You can tell by the comments below the articles linked below that people have trouble wrapping their head around the concept of duality. That is understandable, especially for people who have not studied quantum physics. The […]
encoded: Of all my lectures on physics, my favorite to deliver is on wave-particle duality. The Q/A is always fun. You can tell by the comments below the articles linked below that people have trouble wrapping their head around the concept of duality. That is understandable, especially for people who have not studied quantum physics. The misunderstandings they hold primarily arise from the human need to impose understandable answers and concepts on phenomena that we do not fully understand. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-1176 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/B2907576-CF84-4B73-AFF5-1147B9A64BF4-300x284.jpeg" alt="" width="300" height="284" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/B2907576-CF84-4B73-AFF5-1147B9A64BF4-300x284.jpeg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/B2907576-CF84-4B73-AFF5-1147B9A64BF4-768x727.jpeg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/B2907576-CF84-4B73-AFF5-1147B9A64BF4-1024x969.jpeg 1024w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/B2907576-CF84-4B73-AFF5-1147B9A64BF4.jpeg 1170w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /> https://www.newscientist.com/article/2367388-light-interacts-with-its-past-self-in-twist-on-double-slit-experiment/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=psc&utm_campaign=paidfbnps&utm_content=light&fbclid=IwAR3uaBtabBfvlbIQQUE0MLasRoDlYVYiKSL7i8n7Dq1JFgoxOaPXZ3yFk8o <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-1177" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/9AAA6623-9201-4F65-8BF8-C93228071560-300x215.jpeg" alt="" width="300" height="215" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/9AAA6623-9201-4F65-8BF8-C93228071560-300x215.jpeg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/9AAA6623-9201-4F65-8BF8-C93228071560-768x552.jpeg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/06/9AAA6…

Recommended reading and veritas incommodum on nuclear power and the harm done by “activists.”
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-05-23T05:41:40Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island were nuclear / radiologic accidents that vary widely in their causes, damage, lethality, and in the future perils each pose. Even if one accepts the most extreme assessments and predictions, however, they pale in terms of harm and potential harm to Earth’s environment and human health caused by human […]
encoded: Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island were nuclear / radiologic accidents that vary widely in their causes, damage, lethality, and in the future perils each pose. Even if one accepts the most extreme assessments and predictions, however, they pale in terms of harm and potential harm to Earth’s environment and human health caused by human use of fossil fuels, mining (including) rare-earth mining, and other activities related to the production of energy needed to compensate for our lack of development of safe and environmentally sustainable nuclear power. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-1112 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-22-at-13.23.10-300x282.png" alt="" width="269" height="253" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-22-at-13.23.10-300x282.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-22-at-13.23.10.png 751w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 269px) 100vw, 269px" />Movies like the China Syndrome, and the actions of activists — ranging from those with well-intended environmental concerns to howling lunatics — created a milieu of unfounded fear and prejudice that retarded use of nuclear fuels. Corporations that treated nuclear power development the same as other commercial projects (with attitude toward cost cutting and minimal compliance to safety standards) also degraded public trust. There is no solution to minimizing human contributions to global warming and climate change that does not involve a robust reliance on nuclear power. That is a fact well- grounded in science and engineering. Until we have serious discussions about building an energy infrastructure primarily dependent on nuclear power — along with dedicated efforts toward solving the safety problems and engineering challenges related thereto — there are no reasonably workable solutions to the environmental perils future generations face. If …

Layers of History
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-05-14T19:11:35Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: What do these three things have in common? He archeological site at Glanum in Provence, Van Gogh’s, ‘Fountain in the Garden of Hospital,’ and his ‘Olive Trees with the Alpilles in the Background.’ (see paintings below in comments) Troubled with mental illness that resulted in the self-mutilation of his ear, in 1889 van Gogh voluntarily […]
encoded: What do these three things have in common? He archeological site at Glanum in Provence, Van Gogh’s, ‘Fountain in the Garden of Hospital,’ and his ‘Olive Trees with the Alpilles in the Background.’ (see paintings below in comments) Troubled with mental illness that resulted in the self-mutilation of his ear, in 1889 van Gogh voluntarily committed himself to the Saint-Paul-de-Mausole monastery-run asylum located just south of Saint-Rémy-de-Provence. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-1082" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/France-Provence-archeology-IMG_5920-300x193.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="193" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/France-Provence-archeology-IMG_5920-300x193.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/France-Provence-archeology-IMG_5920-768x495.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/France-Provence-archeology-IMG_5920-1024x660.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-1083" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-14-at-02.05.12-300x240.png" alt="" width="237" height="190" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-14-at-02.05.12-300x240.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-14-at-02.05.12.png 743w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 237px) 100vw, 237px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-1084" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-14-at-01.58.46-300x245.png" alt="" width="235" height="192" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-14-at-01.58.46-300x245.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-14-at-01.58.46.png 463w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 235…

The baton is passed: The shame-stick of anti-science has changed hands
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-05-10T18:43:16Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: 8 May, 2023 Highly recommended and, if you care about science, essential reading: ‘A Paper That Says Science Should Be Impartial Was Rejected by Major Journals. You Can’t Make This Up,’ by Pamela Paul, published in The New York Times (link below and in comments). Anti-intellectual, anti-liberal, and anti-science movements shift about over time with […]
encoded: 8 May, 2023 Highly recommended and, if you care about science, essential reading: ‘A Paper That Says Science Should Be Impartial Was Rejected by Major Journals. You Can’t Make This Up,’ by Pamela Paul, published in The New York Times (link below and in comments). Anti-intellectual, anti-liberal, and anti-science movements shift about over time with regard to who holds the shame-stick. In the U.S., that baton is now firmly in the hands of the progressivista Leftists who have gained an outsize influence in the Democratic party. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-1060 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-08-at-13.30.36-300x227.png" alt="" width="250" height="189" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-08-at-13.30.36-300x227.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-08-at-13.30.36-768x581.png 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/05/Screen-Shot-2023-05-08-at-13.30.36.png 860w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px" />Science is inherently able to withstand and eventually overcome the arguments of those who allow partisan or trendy ideology to supersede evidence, but they can do substantial damage that crosses generations. The recent assaults on science–as opposed to science practice–as fundamentally racist and/or in need of decolonizing are fundamentally neo-racist and neo-religious in their worldview, and so allowing them to control science policy and publishing is akin to allowing the Spanish Inquisition to be in charge of science policy and publishing. It’s very frustrating. As someone who has spent a good part of his life trying to encourage women and empower the marginalized to study science, I’m ready to round up these folks and ship them off to science re-education camps, leaving the helicopter door open for more than a few. Their broad-brush characterizations of science (o…

Rosalind Franklin’s contributions to the discovery of DNA’s structure revised
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-04-28T17:54:14Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Highly Recommended Reading: What Rosalind Franklin truly contributed to the discovery of DNA’s structure. Nature. April, 2023. (see links to all articles mentioned herein in the comments section below) Rosalind Franklin deserves more credit for her role as a collaborator in the discovery of the structure of DNA and her other profound and foundational contributions […]
encoded: Highly Recommended Reading: What Rosalind Franklin truly contributed to the discovery of DNA’s structure. Nature. April, 2023. (see links to all articles mentioned herein in the comments section below) Rosalind Franklin deserves more credit for her role as a collaborator in the discovery of the structure of DNA and her other profound and foundational contributions to molecular biology, but she wasn’t the victim many have asserted, nor were the Nobel winners James Watson, Francis Crick, and Maurice Wilkens the sexist intellectual property thieves some have asserted over the years. Rosalind Franklin deserves much more credit than she has formally received for her integral contributions to the revolutionary discovery of the structure of DNA in the 1950s. Moreover, her broader contributions to molecular biology place her in any pantheon of science or scientists. As revealed in a paper published this month in Nature, however, recent reviews of Franklin’s notes provide persuasive evidence that prior contentions that James Watson and Francis Crick “stole” her work, or that she had the both the structure and molecular mechanism of DNA worked out before Watson and Crick published their model are false. Watson and Francis Crick’s seminal paper detailing the discovery of the DNA double helix, was published as part of a trio of papers (one authored by Franklin) in Nature 70 years ago this month. [1] [2] [3] Watson and Crick’s breakthrough was the intellectual culmination of many past discoveries in molecular genetics, and included the work of Franklin. While the recent discoveries show Franklin’s uncertainties over the correct double helix structure for DNA (and her lack of work on a functional model) they also reveal how integral and essential Franklin’s work was to the articulation of the structure of DNA and the confirmation of the Watson and Crick model. Without Franklin’s work, it is quite probable that U.S. scientist Linus Pauling would have won the race to publish the co…

Florida Lawmakers Claim Museum Director Violated Florida’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ Law
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-04-01T13:15:40Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: In our contemporary culture, where ideology is more important that truth, the idea that a teacher or museum director might receive criticism from both the Left and Right for displaying a well known classical work of art or accurately describing classical history or culture is all too real — and certainly not a joke. While […]
encoded: In our contemporary culture, where ideology is more important that truth, the idea that a teacher or museum director might receive criticism from both the Left and Right for displaying a well known classical work of art or accurately describing classical history or culture is all too real — and certainly not a joke. While the facts about the statue are all true, ‘Antinous as Agathodaemon’ still resides at the Ailes Museum in Berlin, this particular story — at least for now — is my April Fools Day jest.

Trust, but verify: ChatGPT can be a powerful tool, but also one that leads students and researchers astray
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-03-13T07:09:34Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Librarians, teachers, and students beware! ChatGPT can be prone to wildly wrong answers. Treat ChatGPT as a tool and resource that needs additional vetting. I have already documented problems with ChatGPT answers about STEM subjects and issues. I have found many answers to be antiquated or errant. One reason for these errors is because the […]
encoded: Librarians, teachers, and students beware! ChatGPT can be prone to wildly wrong answers. Treat ChatGPT as a tool and resource that needs additional vetting. I have already documented problems with ChatGPT answers about STEM subjects and issues. I have found many answers to be antiquated or errant. One reason for these errors is because the ChatGPT knowledge base is akin to an inverted pyramid. Distant events should enjoy a wider base of texts upon which to train large language models. Documentation of recent discoveries or events is usually less, therefore rendering ansers more susceptible to single -source errors or outdated material. While doing genealogy research last week on Adams and Boylston ancestors (e.g., one of my 7th great-grandfathers was Peter Boylston Adams (1738-1823), the younger brother of President John Adams Jr., John Adams Sr is an 8th great grandfather, and Susanna Boylston is an 8th great-grandmother) I decided to see how ChatGPT performed outside STEM in an area where the base of historical knowledge available is both wide and deeply vetted. I was shocked at its failures Things ChatGPT ERRANTLY claims about Peter Boylston Adams (1738-1823) included that he was: (1) the father of The 2nd U.S. President John Adams (who was actually his older brother); (2) the grandfather of Abigail Adams; (3) a lieutenant in the Continental Army (he was A Captain in the Mass Militia); (4) the grandfather of President John Quincy Adams. None of that is true. When I hit regenerate, ChatGPT “apologized” for its prior errors but then made still wilder mistakes by errantly claiming the that Peter Boylston Adams (1738-1823): (5) was a second cousin of President John Adams (he was his younger brother); (6) was a sea captain and merchant; (7) was a captain in the Continental Navy; (8 ) as a sea captain was twice captured by British ships but that managed to escape both times. Again, none of that is true. When I specifically asked if Captain Peter Boylston Adams (1738-18…

Gun Policy update. “Come and read it”
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-03-12T19:38:18Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: I’ve been intending to revisit my policies since the tragic murderous mass shooting in Uvalde last year. Alas, there are no easy answers to prevent such evil. Moreover, the Second Amendment’s interpretation by the courts must trump my personal preferences. Regardless, we collectively need to get after the serious business of crafting effective gun laws […]
encoded: I’ve been intending to revisit my policies since the tragic murderous mass shooting in Uvalde last year. Alas, there are no easy answers to prevent such evil. Moreover, the Second Amendment’s interpretation by the courts must trump my personal preferences. Regardless, we collectively need to get after the serious business of crafting effective gun laws that reduce gun-related violence while still protecting the inalienable right of an individual to self-defense. Across a range of issues, history and complex arguments are now constantly sifted by Left and Right partisans to fit ideological boxes. When it comes to gun policies, our hyperpolarization greatly diminishes chances for consensus on rational, evidence-based, and effective measures. America’s gun culture, Constitution, and the broader philosophical underpinnings of the inalienable right to self-defense are inexorably intertwined. For both better and worse, we do have a gun culture in America. It is in our founding and frontier marrow. It has brought us glory and freedom; it has brought us sorrow and shame. Those on the Right who deny that we have a gun culture deny both our history and current reality. Such denial is as silly as those on the Left who simplistically look to places with very different histories, cultures, and attitudes about gun use for laws and policies to import. In such cases, wishing we had the gun culture or laws of other countries becomes nothing more than impotent virtue signaling. I am sickened by those who use guns to kill people who do not deserve to be killed. My heart also breaks when anyone–especially the tender and innocent–is cruelly killed by twisted monsters using guns. But neither misplaced fear and loathing of guns nor “thoughts and prayers” over the misuse of guns help us toward crafting reasonable, enforceable, and evidence-based laws that reduce gun-related deaths without stripping away the inalienable–and in the United States, that term is critical to this debate–right of…

San Antonio, Texas — Remember the Alamo: Both the Heroic Sacrifice and Historical Uncertainties
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-02-22T05:23:12Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Remember. History and myth combine to paint a canvas brushed with heroes’ blood o’er thirteen days of glory at the siege of Alamo Of the defenders, only six are Texas born Others find just cause Travis, Crockett, and Bowie Texians and Tejanos Time and tales obscure what is real from […]
encoded: Remember. History and myth combine to paint a canvas brushed with heroes’ blood o’er thirteen days of glory at the siege of Alamo Of the defenders, only six are Texas born Others find just cause Travis, Crockett, and Bowie Texians and Tejanos Time and tales obscure what is real from symbolic Victory or Death! Travis’ words drew the line His sword need not part the sand Against hopeless odds, valiant men to be consumed sacrificed their lives *** As with many great battles in history, fact mixes with myth concerning the battle of the Alamo. Historians and other writers who utter certainties about many events–for example, whether Travis literally drew a line in the sand with his sword–are hacks you should dismiss. Honest historians (i.e., scholars and writers not driven by an overarching ideology) who are well grounded in primary sources and intellectually capable of weighing evidence of varying credibility will honestly say, “We’ll never know,” or offer their opinion regarding many of the events associated with the Alamo with a level of confidence far from certainty. About the Alamo and the mythology surrounding Lt. Col. William Barret Travis’ famous “line in the sand,” for example, historians still labor over whether Travis literally drew a line in the sand with his sword. Scholarly sentiment has swayed back and forth over the years, but the truth is that we will never know for sure. I argue that it does not matter because Travis essentially drew a more important, and equally dramatic, metaphorical line in the sand for himself and the men under his command with his triple underscoring of ‘Victory or Death’ in his letter from the Alamo dated 24 February, 1836. The only certainty one can offer about the Alamo is that an honest accounting of all sources, when objectively weighed, leads to the same conclusion. While interpretation of evidence can lead to substantial variations in the narrative (even the number of the Alamo’s defenders and who was fit for duty on 6 March,…

Scattershooting with Presidential couplets…
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-02-17T17:27:31Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Scattershooting with Presidential couplets… *** Old uncle Joe became kinda slow, a puppet clown for the Leftist show *** He’d be banned in Boston, where he would never do, because Trump was New York City through and through. *** Though schooled at Harvard, Columbia, and Punahou, Obama’s glow still suffered foreign policy woe *** Like […]
encoded: Scattershooting with Presidential couplets… *** Old uncle Joe became kinda slow, a puppet clown for the Leftist show *** He’d be banned in Boston, where he would never do, because Trump was New York City through and through. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-778 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/Screen-Shot-2023-02-17-at-08.59.51-300x246.png" alt="" width="300" height="246" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/Screen-Shot-2023-02-17-at-08.59.51-300x246.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/Screen-Shot-2023-02-17-at-08.59.51.png 314w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /> *** Though schooled at Harvard, Columbia, and Punahou, Obama’s glow still suffered foreign policy woe *** Like “nu-ce-lear” fusion, Texas and W were linked, from war his Administration certainly did not shrink *** The Ivy League and Rhodes scholarship aside, Arkansas’ Clinton was Hillbilly Bill to the snide. *** The elder Bush served his country with distinction and yet, whether he was more Houston or Kennebunkport was anyone’s bet. *** That President Reagan played a part we all knew, yet it worked and the country was born anew *** From Plains, Georgia came a good man named Jimmy Carter, He made a mess, and about Iran should have been smarter. *** President Ford was a fill-in it’s true, But he was a stout Michigan man who fought the Swine Flu. *** And what can one say about Tricky Dick and Watergate? Except that Nixon went to China before meeting his rat-fucking fate. *** A barefoot boy from Texas, a champion of civil rights, President Johnson is best remembered for ill-considered fights. *** Camelot and President Kennedy’s time were too short, as the hope from Hyannis Port did an assassin’s bullet abort. *** About President Eisenhower, I don’t personally know, I was too young and so farther back I shall not go

The forgotten threat of nuclear winter
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2023-02-14T06:46:32Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: For decades the threat of nuclear weapons use among major powers has declined. That decline stopped with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As a consequence, experts broadly estimate that threat of nuclear war is at a 40 year high. While we rightly focus on the perils of global warming, the use of only […]
encoded: For decades the threat of nuclear weapons use among major powers has declined. That decline stopped with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As a consequence, experts broadly estimate that threat of nuclear war is at a 40 year high. While we rightly focus on the perils of global warming, the use of only a portion of the world’s nuclear weapon anywhere in the world by any power could kill hundreds of millions of people outside the conflict zone in what scientists term ‘nuclear winter.’ <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-768 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/US-Vermont-Stowe-Clouds-January-2013-300x143.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="143" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/US-Vermont-Stowe-Clouds-January-2013-300x143.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/US-Vermont-Stowe-Clouds-January-2013-768x367.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2023/02/US-Vermont-Stowe-Clouds-January-2013.jpg 843w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /> In essence, nuclear winter results from explosions and subsequent fires associated with a nuclear exchange. Vast amounts of smoke, soot, and other particles, would be injected into the upper atmosphere and block sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface for up to a decade. This would result in a significant global cooling and diminished sunlight that, in turn, will deadly to catastrophic crop failure and global famine. The term was first used by Richard Turco, but the concept of nuclear winter was based on based on data and modeling done in the 1980s by Carl Sagan and others. When a nuclear device explodes its fireball produces a thermally intense shockwave that essentially vaporizes everything within a distance from the base that varies by the strength and altitude of the explosion(s), topography, etc. Incoming return updrafts following a nuclear explosion can be so intense that the…

Reading Caesar
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-11-17T19:29:20Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Reading Julius Caesar is a wonderful exercise in propaganda detection and discussions about such detection in Caesar’s commentaries are the quickest way to reveal a person’ s depth of scholarly acquittance with the material. I’m a scientist not a classics scholar, and my skill set — in at least one role I fill — is […]
encoded: Reading Julius Caesar is a wonderful exercise in propaganda detection and discussions about such detection in Caesar’s commentaries are the quickest way to reveal a person’ s depth of scholarly acquittance with the material. I’m a scientist not a classics scholar, and my skill set — in at least one role I fill — is better suited to detect deception, disinformation, or propaganda in matters with a scientific and technical component. That’s also my way of saying that I don’t want to pretend that I can offer definitive answers regarding the veracity of Caesar’s writings or what was purely propaganda versus literary artistry. My Jesuit classic instructors did, however, raise my awareness regarding these issues and that awareness (the detection skill set built upon that awareness) is something I find highly exportable across a broad range of topics. Alas, it is an awareness and a skill set largely absent in many young students — sometimes even when they are well into their undergraduate years. One must always interrogate literature for its honesty and not fall into credulity. One of Caesar’s greatest skills was the power to persuade. In fact, many scholars argue that Caesar’s skill in rhetorical arguments were only clearly surpassed by Cicero. Of Caesar’s skills, Cicero himself wrote that if Caesar had not suffered the physical distractions required of generals and a rulers, and had the time to devote to the advancement of his argumentative arts, that Caesar would have become his equal. One way to assess truthfulness is, of course to see how renowned scholars in a field treat the topic. With regard to Caesar this proves little because — as it frequently does — scholarly criticisms often follow scholarly fashion. For most first half of the 20th century, for example, with authoritarianism on the rise globally, Caesar’s commentaries (as well as the work of other Roman historians) was often treated by scholars as self-serving propaganda. This trend reversed itself in the lat…

Scattershooting on the science supporting, and perils of, vegetarianism and veganism
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-10-14T18:37:49Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Scattershooting on the science supporting, and perils of, vegetarianism and veganism No, this isn’t a post wherein a Texan lampoons vegetarians and vegans. In fact, I include an experimental vegan enchilada recipe below. Nor is it my intent to dissuade anyone from diet decisions related to their religious belief system. My intent herein is to […]
encoded: Scattershooting on the science supporting, and perils of, vegetarianism and veganism No, this isn’t a post wherein a Texan lampoons vegetarians and vegans. In fact, I include an experimental vegan enchilada recipe below. Nor is it my intent to dissuade anyone from diet decisions related to their religious belief system. My intent herein is to respect dietary lifestyle choices that people make that work for them, especially if they sincerely intend those choices to be part of solutions to the many social and ecological problems humanity faces. There are, however, perils inherent in many lifestyle choices, including plant-based diets. Some people choose vegetarian and vegan diets simply based other ethical concerns regarding the treatment of animals. I respect that, but well-intentioned ethics can also blindly bring additional hunger, disease, and famine to the poor in this world. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-599 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-12-at-04.43.36-298x300.png" alt="" width="298" height="300" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-12-at-04.43.36-298x300.png 298w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-12-at-04.43.36-150x150.png 150w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/10/Screen-Shot-2022-10-12-at-04.43.36.png 574w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 298px) 100vw, 298px" />My intent here is simply to point out that there are health, environmental, and economic perils frequently overlooked in often ideologically-driven soft and friendly coverage of these lifestyles. According to growing sales figures of plant-based meat substitutes and other plant-based diet options in both Europe and America, the time has come to take a closer look. To be sure, the medical evidence and warnings against too much red meat consumption, and the hazards of toxin bioaccumulation in some species …

Briefing points: Explosions and gas leaks in the Baltic Sea
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-09-28T12:29:49Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Information and analysis of the massive gas leaks attributed to explosions near Russia’s Nordstrom 1 and 2 pipelines is rapidly evolving. Here are some key points, both strategic and tactical, to remember as you evaluate the news. 1. The leaks are near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099 ° where explosions were recorded […]
encoded: Information and analysis of the massive gas leaks attributed to explosions near Russia’s Nordstrom 1 and 2 pipelines is rapidly evolving. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-587 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/309394104_10221123211125961_6957417317702894091_n-230x300.jpg" alt="" width="169" height="220" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/309394104_10221123211125961_6957417317702894091_n-230x300.jpg 230w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/309394104_10221123211125961_6957417317702894091_n-768x1002.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/309394104_10221123211125961_6957417317702894091_n-785x1024.jpg 785w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/309394104_10221123211125961_6957417317702894091_n.jpg 1170w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 169px) 100vw, 169px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-588 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/308867378_10221123210965957_1925855939418561973_n-300x268.jpg" alt="" width="203" height="181" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/308867378_10221123210965957_1925855939418561973_n-300x268.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/308867378_10221123210965957_1925855939418561973_n-768x687.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/308867378_10221123210965957_1925855939418561973_n-1024x915.jpg 1024w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/308867378_10221123210965957_1925855939418561973_n.jpg 1320w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 203px) 100vw, 203px" /> Here are some key points, both strategic and tactical, to remember as you evaluate the news. 1. The leaks are near the Danish island of Bornholm, at 54.8762°, 15.4099 ° where explosions were recorded by multiple seismic stations. The largest surface disturbance is 1km (0.6 miles) in diameter. 2. At the …

Honor due: Queen Elizabeth II
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-09-20T07:16:22Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: My favorite screenshot from the funeral procession for Queen Elizabeth II (credit BBC) is shown below. Having left Westminster Abbey, the funeral cortege passes into Parliament Square under the watchful gaze cast into a statue honoring her first Prime Minister, Sir Winston Churchill. For all their flaws and imperfections, especially as judged by contemporary standards, […]
encoded: My favorite screenshot from the funeral procession for Queen Elizabeth II (credit BBC) is shown below. Having left Westminster Abbey, the funeral cortege passes into Parliament Square under the watchful gaze cast into a statue honoring her first Prime Minister, Sir Winston Churchill. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-562 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/UK-London-Parliment-Square-Sir-Winston-Churchill-BBC-screenshot-funeral-procession-of-Queen-Elizabeth-II-September-19-2022-IMG_3934-300x180.jpg" alt="" width="342" height="205" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/UK-London-Parliment-Square-Sir-Winston-Churchill-BBC-screenshot-funeral-procession-of-Queen-Elizabeth-II-September-19-2022-IMG_3934-300x180.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/UK-London-Parliment-Square-Sir-Winston-Churchill-BBC-screenshot-funeral-procession-of-Queen-Elizabeth-II-September-19-2022-IMG_3934-768x460.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/09/UK-London-Parliment-Square-Sir-Winston-Churchill-BBC-screenshot-funeral-procession-of-Queen-Elizabeth-II-September-19-2022-IMG_3934-1024x613.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 342px) 100vw, 342px" /> For all their flaws and imperfections, especially as judged by contemporary standards, and for whatever failings history may eventually affix to them, the institutions of the British monarchy and the leadership of Churchill saved western civilization during the Second World War. Had the United Kingdom not been able to stand alone until the might of America came belatedly to the rescue of both Britain and Europe. It is quite conceivable, and arguably probable, that the war in Europe would have been lost to a murderous Nazi regime that, given dominion over both Britain and Europe (and the additional time it would have allowed), would have undoubtably fully developed modern technologies of war (e.g., jet aircraft, atomic …

Who speaks for Earth? Renewable energy also carries costs and perils
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-08-19T11:27:40Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Windmills on the ranch, groaning with wind gusts and shifts, blend into landscapes Will wind farms atop mesas destroy the West’s majesty? Let us be mindful Everything carries a cost There’s a price to pay A photo of a lone windmill on a ranch near San Saba, Texas in the Hill Country contrasted with a photo […]
encoded: Windmills on the ranch, groaning with wind gusts and shifts, blend into landscapes Will wind farms atop mesas destroy the West’s majesty? Let us be mindful Everything carries a cost There’s a price to pay <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-543 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Screen-Shot-2022-08-19-at-06.17.42-300x295.png" alt="" width="538" height="528" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Screen-Shot-2022-08-19-at-06.17.42-300x295.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Screen-Shot-2022-08-19-at-06.17.42.png 625w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px" /> A photo of a lone windmill on a ranch near San Saba, Texas in the Hill Country contrasted with a photo of a wind farm atop a west Texas mesa. I am all for developing renewable, and happy Texas is formed its own independent grid (with the bumps and bruises along the way appropriately noted), but there will be costs and choices to made with regard to our environment as we transition to a cleaner economy over coming decades, including our aesthetic environment. Just as cities are burying power cables and other transmission lines underground, are we creating a new forms of visual pollution along our shores and across our rural landscapes? How can we mitigate this loss and preserve the essence of our landscapes from shorelines to Western canyons, basins, and ranges? This is not a new problem, developers have blighted seashores for decades, and dams and power lines already carry electricity across our countryside. Still the preservation of landscapes os not something we should simply sweep aside in our quest for a cleaner “greener” economy. There’s a place and need for aesthetics in engineering. Emerging beamed energy technologies may eventually help preserve landscapes, but even with green energy we will always be forced to consider the environmental impact related to gathering, transmission, and distr…

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant perils part of novel challenges regarding nuclear safety
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-08-09T17:32:18Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant perils part of novel challenges regarding nuclear safety Lerner, K. Lee. Taking Bearings. August 9, 2022. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12852.12168 The Russian invasion of Ukraine has posed novel problems related to nuclear safety for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Western intelligence communities, and media outlets because this is the first time a large scale […]
encoded: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant perils part of novel challenges regarding nuclear safety Lerner, K. Lee. Taking Bearings. August 9, 2022. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12852.12168 The Russian invasion of Ukraine has posed novel problems related to nuclear safety for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Western intelligence communities, and media outlets because this is the first time a large scale shooting war has threatened multiple nuclear power plants. Early concerns about perils posed by radioactive materials stored at the damaged and decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant have now turned to fears about evident damage to the Zaporizhzhia (also spelled Zaporizhia) nuclear plant located on the Dnipro river-fed Kakhovka reservoir in a southern area of Ukraine now occupied by Russian forces. The challenges include sifting sources for misinformation and disinformation. Petro Kotin, chief of the energy consortium NNEGC Eneroatoam that runs the Zaporizhzhia told Reuters last week that Russian shelling had damaged three lines power lines connecting the plant to the Ukrainian electrical grid. Kotin further speculated that Russia was attempting to sever the plant’s connections to the Ukrainian grid prior in order to potentially connect it to the Russian electrical grid before winter. Prior to the Russian invasion, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant provided about 20 percent of Ukraine’s electrical needs. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-535 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Nuclear-power-plant-in-Ukraine-300x265.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="265" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Nuclear-power-plant-in-Ukraine-300x265.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Nuclear-power-plant-in-Ukraine-768x679.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/08/Nuclear-power-plant-in-Ukraine.jpg 976w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px"…

Wikipedia Remains the Wild West
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-07-15T12:26:13Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: WASHINGTON — It’s been an interesting week to start dealing with clients interested in recommendations for texts and library resources. The question I most encountered this week was, “When budgets are tight, why pay for information available for free on Wikipedia? I answer as follows: (1) Wikipedia is unreliable; (2) Wikipedia articles are often written, […]
encoded: WASHINGTON — It’s been an interesting week to start dealing with clients interested in recommendations for texts and library resources. The question I most encountered this week was, “When budgets are tight, why pay for information available for free on Wikipedia? I answer as follows: (1) Wikipedia is unreliable; (2) Wikipedia articles are often written, edited, and manipulated by those with vested commercial and/or ideological conflicts; and (3) Wikipedia articles are spotty with regard to being vetted or curated by subject matter experts. For amusement and illustration, I keep my own list of 50 plus significant errors in Wikipedia entries dealing with basic science concepts (e.g., electromagnetic) and science-related issues (e.g., vaccine trials, microchip security, etc.) that have errant factual assertions that have been corrected by other (I personally avoid editing wars) but then reverted back to an incorrect answer by anonymous Wikipedia editors with more power over the entry. The examples are not controversial or close calls. I have never accepted student citations to Wikipedia, nor have I ever allowed authors writing for me to cite Wikipedia as a source. Sure, everyone uses Wikipedia, at least for a quick check to see what the unwashed think is important (or conversely what they are missing), but entries are now authoritative and ow need screened with the same skepticism applied to partisan news sources. Moreover, Wikipedia is filled with plagiarism. I know because a good bit of my own writing is plagiarized there. The most dangerous thing about Wikipedia is, however, not the howlers regarding science that anyone with reasonable training in any science discipline can spot, but the more subtle and inaccessible errors, errors that range beyond the detection of the well-educated and which can even fool all but experts in the field. Having one of the most accessed Academia sites (harvard.academia.edu/KLeeLerner) means that I receive about a half-dozen letters a …

Happy Independence Day: In the land of the free, we still must choose to be free
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-07-04T14:21:43Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: July 4, 2022 Fairhope, Alabama — I am blessed to have Bella docked just down the bluff. If I am sitting in my study contemplating the cosmos, it takes just 10 minutes to drive down the hill, park right to Bella (no mooring balls or harbor master needed), jump aboard, fire up Bella’s inboard, set […]
encoded: July 4, 2022 Fairhope, Alabama — I am blessed to have Bella docked just down the bluff. If I am sitting in my study contemplating the cosmos, it takes just 10 minutes to drive down the hill, park right to Bella (no mooring balls or harbor master needed), jump aboard, fire up Bella’s inboard, set lights and radios, cast off lines, navigate the channel, and cut the engine, and start hoisting sails. I’ve rushed and made it in less time. Tonight’s 2022 fireworks display was cancelled due to threatening weather until just 15 minutes before scheduled showtime. When the weather cleared and the show become a “go,” I still had time to make a last-minute decision to go out to enjoy the show on Bella. Firework displays are plentiful around Mobile Bay and so bursts of light play out across the horizon. Fairhope fires its display from a pier and the shells may literally burst above the boat so that ash rains down\ <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-488 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/07/US-Alabama-Mobile-Bay-off-Fairhope-Bella-sailing-fireworks-July-4-2022-IMG_2409-300x192.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="192" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/07/US-Alabama-Mobile-Bay-off-Fairhope-Bella-sailing-fireworks-July-4-2022-IMG_2409-300x192.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/07/US-Alabama-Mobile-Bay-off-Fairhope-Bella-sailing-fireworks-July-4-2022-IMG_2409-768x492.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/07/US-Alabama-Mobile-Bay-off-Fairhope-Bella-sailing-fireworks-July-4-2022-IMG_2409-1024x656.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />It’s also spectacular because our little town puts on a big city show. The quality of the fireworks display is second only to the every-changing flower displays about town in determining the success of a mayor’s term in office. We have none of the deep problems that plague urbanity, and we are r…

U.S. Border Policies: It’s not just political power that’s at stake, it’s human lives.
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-06-28T18:43:38Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: San Antonio Fire Chief Charles Hood, a friend and member of my Harvard Kennedy School 2014 Crisis Leadership Class, briefs the press on the deaths of 53 people and injuries to 12 additional presumed migrants, including four children, found inside a tractor-trailer abandoned in deadly Texas summer heat. Forty-six people were found dead at the […]
encoded: San Antonio Fire Chief Charles Hood, a friend and member of my Harvard Kennedy School 2014 Crisis Leadership Class, briefs the press on the deaths of 53 people and injuries to 12 additional presumed migrants, including four children, found inside a tractor-trailer abandoned in deadly Texas summer heat. Forty-six people were found dead at the scene, seven died later in hospital. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-478 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-28-at-06.29.30-300x238.png" alt="" width="300" height="238" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-28-at-06.29.30-300x238.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-28-at-06.29.30-768x609.png 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-28-at-06.29.30.png 959w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /> Texas, like America, is torn by partisan divisions. Clowns, morons, misfits, and mental defectives inhabit left and right extremes in Texas politics. The recent Texas GOP convention, par exemple, produced particularly unhinged and cruel positions on issues. In a depressing electoral conundrum that I fear will repeat itself over coming years, in November I’ll be forced to chose between the GOP nominee, the current Governor Abbott, in his reelection race against his leftist progressive Democrat opponent, Beto O’Rourke, who I have elsewhere characterized as an exploitive opportunist manifestly unfit to lead. An alternative I trust with the future of Texas won’t be on the ballot. To his credit, at least in his first response, Beto, restrained himself from the immediate left/right Trump/Biden finger-pointing. Abbott went right for the political jugular by tweeting arguing, “These deaths are on Biden. They are a result of his deadly open border policies. They show the deadly consequences of his refusal to enfo…

What does the data tell us about the “good guy with a gun stopping a bad guy with a gun” scenario
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-06-25T14:23:03Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: I watched an interview of Adam Lankford, a professor of Criminology at the University of Alabama, on CNN this morning. It was obvious that the interviewer’s intent was to offer up Lankford’s research as an effort to debunk — or at least cast doubt – on the “good guy with a gun stopping a bad guy […]
encoded: I watched an interview of Adam Lankford, a professor of Criminology at the University of Alabama, on CNN this morning. It was obvious that the interviewer’s intent was to offer up Lankford’s research as an effort to debunk — or at least cast doubt – on the “good guy with a gun stopping a bad guy with a gun” argument offered by many seeking to limit or defeat control measures. In this post, I am not addressing the larger issue regarding the validity of offering the intuitive argument that “good guy with a gun is the best way to stop a bad guy with a gun,” nor am I dismissing the perils of people untrained with weapons attempting to make decisions and use weapons during a crisis situation. I am limiting my comments here to the perils of citing Lankford’s data or accepting the arguments Langford made based on his data. Lankford offers conclusions beyond his data and does not apply proper context or controls for his data At best, it is interesting but tepid scholarship. Lankford argues his data shows that the “good guy with a gun stopping a bad guy with a gun” scenario only happens in about 3 percent of mass shooting events because of the rapidity of such events (i.e., they are over before anyone can act). That’s true — most shooting events are over before anyone –citizens or police – can react. But to offer that data as some sort of argument against the “good guy with a gun” argument is faulty. People carry weapons primarily for personal defense and Langford’s data does nothing to address that motivation to carry a weapon. Nor does Langford’s data treat the “good guy with a gun” capacity to personally deterring or stop an incident personal to the carrier, their family, etc. in incidents more intimate and below the threshold of a mass shooting. While many would be willing to help stop a shooter, as above, the circumstances where this opportunity presents itself are exceedingly rare. However, the “good guy with a gun stopping a bad guy with a gun” also has a meta “deterr…

Hispanic rejection of exploitive identity politics may save us all
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-06-15T14:29:27Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: I have said that the Hispanic population will be the force nationally that saves us from entrenched partisan identity politics. They will force us to a moral and rational center. Absent a center, they will swing right into red. That proved true last night in Texas when Republican Mayra Flores won a special election and […]
encoded: I have said that the Hispanic population will be the force nationally that saves us from entrenched partisan identity politics. They will force us to a moral and rational center. Absent a center, they will swing right into red. That proved true last night in Texas when Republican Mayra Flores won a special election and flipped a Congressional House seat that has been in the Dem’s column since Reconstruction. As goes Texas, so goes the country. That case has been well-made by many, and any hopes on the left that Texas might at least turn purple vaporized last night when Flores won a heavily Latino — and previously heavily Democratic –district in South Texas. A star is born. It’s really a significant loss for Dems. With beta-boy Beto — who is now seen as an opportunistic self-serving charlatan in large swaths of the Hispanic community — as the Dem’s gubernatorial candidate, the GOP will have a field day turning South Texas purple, which will just turn Texas a deeper shade of red. I have been warning my respected friends on the left in Washington and Cambridge that Hispanics in Texas do not want to be seen or treated as “people of color,” and most assuredly not lumped in with — or treated — like they were black. Hispanics have watched as prominent Democrats, including Biden himself, treat themselves as arbiters of blackness or treat blacks as a monoculture whose votes are always in the Dem’s hip pockets (e.g., Biden’s “you ain’t black” comment). Volumes of polling data show Hispanics crave meritocracy not exploitation or perpetual marginalization as victims. They see the failures of progressive Democrats to acknowledge the differentiation within the black community in terms of history, education, achievement, viewpoints and concerns as a warning. My Hispanic colleagues deeply resent POC presumptions made by the DNC and white liberals who benefit from both the overt and inherent racial exploitations of the identity politics cult. Trends in Hispanic voting in 2020 — espe…

Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-06-01T14:13:38Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33868.69760 [Additional background for non-scientists is appended] June 1, 2022 Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon. Containment is a failure. Iran’s breakout time is now essentially at […]
encoded: Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33868.69760 [Additional background for non-scientists is appended] June 1, 2022 Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon. Containment is a failure. Iran’s breakout time is now essentially at zero According to estimates prepared from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports and Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), Iran now has sufficient stores of highly enriched uranium (e.g., HEU or 60 percent enriched uranium ) to fashion a crude nuclear weapon. [1] As I predicted in March, Iran now has sufficient HEU, the required centrifuges, and the skill to rapidly increase enrichment of weapon-grade uranium (e.g., WGU or 90 percent enriched uranium) within a few weeks. [2] After allegedly abandoning its nuclear program in 2003, (e.g., the Amad plan led by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh who was assassinated in November 2020), Iran has built secret nuclear facilities, obstructed IAEA inspections, and repeatedly denied or downplayed its ongoing efforts to enrich uranium International efforts, primarily via the deeply flawed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) focused on limiting Iran’s supply of HEU. It is now clear that JCPOA failed and lack of inspections and enforcement, allowed Iran the time to build its enriched uranium stores to their present state. Despite the manifest failure of the JCPOA and Iran’s history of deception and obstruction, the Biden administration and others in the west dangerously and naively continue efforts to renegotiate a still weaker agreement, even though independent IAEA verification of any deal will again prove to be futile. Using worst-case timeline estimates, according to David Albright and Sarah Burkhard at ISIS “Iran’s breakout timeline is now at zero… In parallel, within a month, it could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a second nuclear …

Memorial Day Reflections
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-05-30T18:51:33Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Memorial Day We honor fallen heroes who served their country Americans called to arms some sacrificed for nothing * * * As the article linked below in the comments section articulates, “Memorial Day is a blank canvas, ours to commemorate in whatever way we see fit… Some will visit cemeteries, others will spend some time […]
encoded: Memorial Day We honor fallen heroes who served their country Americans called to arms some sacrificed for nothing * * * As the article linked below in the comments section articulates, “Memorial Day is a blank canvas, ours to commemorate in whatever way we see fit… Some will visit cemeteries, others will spend some time alone, and still others will take a moment amid a chaotic and happy day with family or friends to remember what today is. It doesn’t matter how we do it. It’s just important that we do it.” (1) <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium wp-image-421 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/05/US-Alabama-Point-Clear-Confederate-Rest-Cemetery-IMG_1322-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/05/US-Alabama-Point-Clear-Confederate-Rest-Cemetery-IMG_1322-300x225.jpg 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/05/US-Alabama-Point-Clear-Confederate-Rest-Cemetery-IMG_1322-768x576.jpg 768w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/05/US-Alabama-Point-Clear-Confederate-Rest-Cemetery-IMG_1322-1024x768.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />I don’t care much about monuments. Throughout history and across cultures they rise and fall. Things change, and history is always a battlefield. I do, however, care about graves and honoring those who died for their country because soldiers, for both better and worse, do not usually fight for the grand ideologies shifting histories or dishonest historians might eventually ascribe to them. Most soldiers are pawns of war. Some were conscripted, many more mustered their courage to selflessly respond to the call of their country — or what they thought of as their country — based on noble perceptions of patriotism, sense of honor, duty to protect their home and others, etc. In the end, most soldiers fight and die not for a cause, but for each other, for their brothers in arms.…

Defense Challenges Multiply – Part 1
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-05-19T09:35:41Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: Part I While we remain focused on Ukraine. defense challenges to the west and western companies multiply. America’s lead in technology has narrowed with China and in some key facets it has evaporated. Over the next few weeks, I will be examining threats and potential threats to both countries and companies from an array of […]
encoded: Part I While we remain focused on Ukraine. defense challenges to the west and western companies multiply. America’s lead in technology has narrowed with China and in some key facets it has evaporated. Over the next few weeks, I will be examining threats and potential threats to both countries and companies from an array of lesser known radiologic, biologic, chemical, and cyber perils. Many of these threats relate to microchip security and energy demand and supply. Some of these threats involve both low and tech components. For example, at a military airshow in 2016, China demonstrated the capacity to launch multiple precision-guided rockets concealed in standard shipping containers hauled aboard cargo ships. There is no open confirmation that China has widely implemented the system, but the demonstration sounded alarms in Washington, London, and European countries with maritime exposure. The potential threat remains real. Such systems could overwhelm U.S. defense systems and cripple our ability to strike back after an attack. Like submarines, cargo ships are independently positional and controllable systems that can pose a threat from nearby international waters where the cargo containers are beyond inspection. (See “China is building long-range cruise missiles launched from ship containers.” News Navy Naval Maritime Defense Industry. April 2019, Available at https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2019/april/6971-china-is-building-long-range-cruise-missiles-launched-from-ship-containers.html) Without costs of nuclear programs and weapons, these containerized threats can remain subnuclear and thus skirt a strategic nuclear stalemate to yield tremendous tactical advantages. China has, for example a YJ-18C long range cruise missile that could be modified to launch from containers. China also has hypersonic missiles that, given the combination of offshore proximity and their speed, would be difficult to intercept and shoot down. There are also poten…

Insurrection, Coup d’état, Revolution: Know the difference
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-05-10T07:53:36Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: [Originally published May 10, 2022. Updated: July 3, 2022.] I denounced the insurrection on January 6th. I did so on the day, and I do so now. Regardless what the protestors may have initially intended, the resulting violent assault on the U.S. Capitol — including violent assaults on law enforcement officers — turned them […]
encoded: [Originally published May 10, 2022. Updated: July 3, 2022.] I denounced the insurrection on January 6th. I did so on the day, and I do so now. Regardless what the protestors may have initially intended, the resulting violent assault on the U.S. Capitol — including violent assaults on law enforcement officers — turned them into insurrectionists. Regardless their self-proclaimed patriotism, the actions of those who committed violence were despicable and deplorable. Despite the garb and gear on display, many months of investigation have shown that the mob contained about the same percentage of veterans — people who have sworn to defend the Constitution — as is found in the general population. I find it of some comfort that the rioters contained a lot of pretend soldiers out on a pretend mission, yet I still find it unfathomable that anyone who had sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States could violently breach its Capitol. Many years before his 2016 election, I declared former President Trump unfit for office. Few things he did in office proved me wrong. immeasurably crude, even when implementing effective policies, was the best Trump could ever muster as president. But did Trump, after his election defeat, orchestrate an attempted coup d’état with the goal of remaining in office? What I am exploring herein is one about words and terms — specifically the words insurrection, coup (herein, unless further modified, to mean coup d’état) , and revolution. It is not to be construed as an attempt to mitigate or lessened Trump’s series of insidious, reprehensible, and possibly illegal actions that Trump undertook as he clearly lashed about trying to find a way to prove that he had won the 2020 election. Typical of Trump, he accepted no other argument , conclusion, or judgment than his own that the election had fraudulently denied him a second term. There is no doubt that by January 6th, the last hope of the Trump’s toxically quixotic quest to retain po…

Iran’s nuclear capabilities: “I say it here, it comes out there”
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-04-27T18:04:05Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: “I say it here, it comes out there”— Reporter Aaron Altman (Albert Brooks),Broadcast News (1987) I wish. It took six weeks for the Biden administration to admit what I warned on March 9th regarding the Iran breakout window (i.e., that there was high confidence that Iran was just weeks away from being able to develop […]
encoded: “I say it here, it comes out there”— Reporter Aaron Altman (Albert Brooks),Broadcast News (1987) <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-389 alignleft" src="http://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/04/Screen-Shot-2022-04-27-at-08.22.30-1-300x216.png" alt="" width="489" height="352" srcset="https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/04/Screen-Shot-2022-04-27-at-08.22.30-1-300x216.png 300w, https://archive.blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/files/2022/04/Screen-Shot-2022-04-27-at-08.22.30-1.png 473w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 489px) 100vw, 489px" /> I wish. It took six weeks for the Biden administration to admit what I warned on March 9th regarding the Iran breakout window (i.e., that there was high confidence that Iran was just weeks away from being able to develop a primitive nuclear weapon. That capacity is well inside the old Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) year safety buffer, and essentially makes any attempt to revive it moot. Why did it take so long? Perhaps to keep the failing JCPOA negotiations on life support? Perhaps to please those who have had their head-in-the-sand (or inserted in other places) about Iran’s nuclear programs and/or intentions for years? The Iran nuclear story was a 15 second sound clip from the White House yesterday. Today it’s a one minute read on Reuters. Meanwhile hours are spent on what? Partisans melting down or cheering because Elon again outsmarted the non-elite elites to buy Twitter? We collectively deserve to live in caves.. https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-worried-iran-could-develop-nuclear-weapon-weeks-2022-04-26/?fbclid=IwAR2igWTyb6BN1RRSvBnZinrV2tv1wYTubAR-7DOQsmJHtPDoDK_fHPnCZtM https://blogs.harvard.edu/kleelerner/irans-nuclear-breakout-window-narrows/?fbclid=IwAR1bd3PqrU4GKdqZR1gVRdrR_1ONsODt0h87eWRcAbwwyrxJF7YwJbOEEAQ

Putin’s take it or break it strategy in Ukraine and his perilous nuclear options
type: item
creator: K. Lee Lerner
date: 2022-03-26T13:39:47Z
subject: Taking Bearings Essay
description: March 26, 2022 Ten things to know about the war in Ukraine, including Putin’s potential use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine Time is now an ally of Ukraine. With Western logistical support, time is now on Ukraine’s side. Until recently time was viewed as something that worked against Ukraine. Given Russia’s superior numbers, the […]
encoded: March 26, 2022 Ten things to know about the war in Ukraine, including Putin’s potential use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine Time is now an ally of Ukraine. With Western logistical support, time is now on Ukraine’s side. Until recently time was viewed as something that worked against Ukraine. Given Russia’s superior numbers, the defeat and occupation of Ukraine was widely viewed (myself included) as just a matter of time. The stout Ukrainian resistance combined with Russian Army and Air Force arrogance and incompetence have now, however, turned time into a Ukrainian asset. Absent substantial help from China, or Putin’s use of tactical nuclear weapons (for political purposes his most viable WMD option) the war has devolved into one of attrition that gives a constantly resupplied Ukraine a fighting chance. 2. Putin’s WMD reasoning. A war of attrition increases the potential that Putin will resort to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon. How likely is it that Putin might pursue a nuclear option? If Putin is irrational then rational analysis will not yield medium or high confidence assessments of his potential decisions, but one way to approach this problem is to assess negative outcomes a rational Putin might weigh in deciding whether to use a nuclear device. 3. Perilous options. Should Putin attempt the use of a tactical nuclear weapon, he not only faces the prospect that (1) subordinates may not follow orders, but also (2) that a nuclear weapon fizzles. If either of those things happen, it is the end of the Putin regime. 4. A military plundered by corruption. How much confidence does Putin have in his command and control? Putin’s recent shake ups of his military and intelligence show he is worried about discontent and loyalty in the ranks. Given the underwhelming performance of the Russian Army and Air Force, the emerging “country plundered by oligarchs” narrative that allows Russian army officers to save face may be the biggest threat to Putin staying in offi…