{"id":1077,"date":"2009-07-06T10:59:42","date_gmt":"2009-07-06T14:59:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/idblog\/?p=1077"},"modified":"2009-07-15T23:12:37","modified_gmt":"2009-07-16T03:12:37","slug":"mexico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/2009\/07\/06\/mexico\/","title":{"rendered":"Mexico: Mid-Term Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, on Sunday July 5, Mexico hosted its mid-term elections, bringing change to its lower house of Congress, six governor and hundreds of mayoral offices. The reform agenda of President Felipe Calderon will depend on his ability to secure a majority in the 500-member Lower House, or Chamber of Deputies, or \u201cDeputatos.\u201d Calderon\u2019s party, the National Action Party (PAN) competes with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the old garde in Mexican politics until Vicente Fox upset the trend nine years ago. Though Calderon\u2019s PAN hold more Senate and Deputy seats, they lack a majority, as the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) occupies highly coveted seats.<\/p>\n

Sunday\u2019s elections are pivotal in the ability to provide majority. While no Senate seats are up for grabs, should PRI or PAN secure sufficient seats in the lower Chamber of Deputies \u2013350 of whom are elected, 150 appointed\u2013 the President\u2019s ability to push reformist policies will alter. With the onset of Swine Flu, the disengagement of tourists, rising unemployment, and destabilizing macroeconomic climate, the mid-term election offers potential for facilitated policy change, not to mention a tacit referendum on Calderon half way through his six-year term.<\/p>\n

Today, Mexico has roughly 27M people, or 25 percent of its population, online. Although looking at Internet data in\u00a0 low-connectivity nations can be problematic \u2013as many online in Mexico are “Panista,” meaning they support the Calderon’s PAN party\u2013 such data can still be illustrative if used to describe proper demographics.\u00a0 Before Sunday\u2019s elections, online trends point to pockets of support across demographics and regions. It can point to issues of regional importance. Relevant to Mexico\u2019s youth demographic, Facebook\u2019s Lexicon<\/a> displays prevalence of terms on Facebook Wall posts. When comparing \u201cPRI\u201d with \u201cPAN,\u201d the margin of difference for Calderon\u2019s PAN has increased since March 2009. In fact, Facebook Wall reference volume on PAN is triple PRI, and peaking around June 15. As yet, there is still no means of parsing Facebook Lexicon data by geography.<\/p>\n

\n

\"Facebook

Facebook Lexicon PRI vs PAN Wall Posting Data<\/p><\/div>\n

Regarding use of Google, 30-day moving averages of relative search data indicated that Calderon\u2019s PAN was leading in regional online interest, with strongholds in states of Sonora, Jalisco, Distrito Federal (Mexico City), Nueva Le\u00f3n, and Baja California.<\/p>\n

\"Geographic

Geographic Distibution of Relative Google Search on "PAN"<\/p><\/div>\n

The 30-day domestic Mexican Internet search volume puts PAN at roughly 40 percent greater volume than PRI, however recent spikes in traffic and initial post-election results are putting PRI roughly ten points up on PAN. Internationally, the importance of the mid-term election as partial referendum is indicated by high volume on President Calderon. Outside Mexico, greatest interest in Calderon \u2013as a proportion of domestic search\u2013 comes from Puerto Rico and Costa Rica. Outside of Mexico, the issue remains important across much of Latin America, in Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and even Spain.<\/p>\n

\"Global

Global Geographic Overview of Google Search on "Calderon"<\/p><\/div>\n

Initial post-election results show Calderon\u2019s PAN trailing the PRI in new Lower House seats won. Diminished PAN influence in the Chamber of Deputies will hamper Calderon\u2019s reform movement, and strike an initial blow to the Mexican economy, with lack of Congressional majority undercutting likelihood of decisive leadership. As of 9:40AM, stocks and the Mexican Peso had fallen<\/a> by half of a percent against the Dollar. Initial results indicated that in Mexico online interest in party and candidate terms by connected voters did not translate into a reflection of ballots cast. But the Internet demonstrated that such electoral events matter not only in Mexico, but also indicated a leading interest in Mexican politics across Latin America and across much of the globe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday, on Sunday July 5, Mexico hosted its mid-term elections, bringing change to its lower house of Congress, six governor and hundreds of mayoral offices. The reform agenda of President Felipe Calderon will depend on his ability to secure a majority in the 500-member Lower House, or Chamber of Deputies, or \u201cDeputatos.\u201d Calderon\u2019s party, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2121,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2689],"tags":[1944,1113],"class_list":["post-1077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","tag-election","tag-mexico"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2121"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1077"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1077\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1443,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1077\/revisions\/1443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/idblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}