{"id":445,"date":"2008-09-29T21:58:13","date_gmt":"2008-09-30T01:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/guorui\/?p=445"},"modified":"2008-10-03T15:09:54","modified_gmt":"2008-10-03T19:09:54","slug":"%e5%bc%97%e6%a0%bc%e6%a3%ae-chimerica%e6%97%b6%e4%bb%a3%e5%8d%b3%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%88%e7%bb%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/guorui\/2008\/09\/29\/%e5%bc%97%e6%a0%bc%e6%a3%ae-chimerica%e6%97%b6%e4%bb%a3%e5%8d%b3%e5%b0%86%e7%bb%88%e7%bb%93\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f17\u683c\u68ee: Chimerica\u65f6\u4ee3\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7f8e\u6559\u6388: Chimerica\u65f6\u4ee3\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3<\/a><\/p>\n

2008-9-22<\/p>\n

\u3010\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u6559\u6388\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u6587\u89c1\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\u3002\u4e24\u7bc7\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\u5982\u4e0b\u3011<\/p>\n

1.Great Crash?<\/a><\/h3>\n

2. Chimerica\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u5927\u516c\u7f51\u8baf\u3011\u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u5377\u8d77\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u95f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u6388\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u5728\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u6587\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u524a\u51cf\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u79f0\u9738\u5168\u7403\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bba\u8c03\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8f6c\u5f31\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u671b\u4e8e\u4e0d\u8db320\u5e74\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9999\u6e2f\u6587\u6c47\u62a5\u4eca\u5929\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5148\u540e\u63a5\u7ba1\u300c\u4e24\u623f\u300d\u548c\u5168\u7f8e\u6700\u5927\u578b\u4fdd\u9669\u96c6\u56e2\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u96c6\u56e2\uff08AIG\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u4e4b\u56fd\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u5957\u7528\u56fd\u9645\u8457\u540d\u5927\u7092\u5bb6\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u300c\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u300d\u5c31\u6b64\u6b65\u5411\u672b\u8def\uff0c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6743\u529b\u6d17\u724c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56fd\u6c11\u5b58\u6b3e\u5360\u538b\u5012\u4f18\u52bf<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u66fe\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u706b\u8f66\u5934\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d1f\u8d23\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d1f\u8d23\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GNP\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u6c11\u5b58\u6b3e\u6240\u5360\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u6709\u6240\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u75311990\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u7684\u903e5%\uff0c\u8dcc\u81f32005\u5e74\u7684\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u5b58\u6b3e\u7531\u4e0d\u8db330%\uff0c\u5347\u81f345%\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u300c\u4e92\u5229\u5171\u751f\u300d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u66f4\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u8bcd\u300cChimerica\u300d\u6765\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e24\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u6e10\u6e10\u8131\u79bb\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u300cChimerica\u300d\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u53ef\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u900f\u8fc7\u4e0a\u6d77\u5408\u4f5c\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u6216\u85c9\u4ece\u8d44\u6e90\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u975e\u6d32\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u5982\u4f55\u589e\u52a0\u5168\u7403\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u3002GDP\u5c06\u63d0\u65e913\u5e74\u8d85\u7f8e\u56fd\u7f8e\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u4e1a\u754c\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u501f\u8d37\u653f\u7b56\u917f\u6210\u4e86\u697c\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u6309\u63ed\u94f6\u884c\u9677\u5165\u8d22\u56f0\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u6295\u8d44\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63a8\u5411\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6539\u5199\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u76db\u8bc1\u5238\u66fe\u7ecf\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b494\u56fd\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u6709\u671b\u4e8e2040\u5e74\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u65b0\u62a5\u544a\u5df2\u5c06\u65e5\u5b50\u63a8\u524d\u81f32027\u5e74\uff0c\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65e5\u5b50\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u65e9\u6765\u5230\u3002\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u66b4\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5374\u7a33\u6b65\u4e0a\u626c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u518d\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6025\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u6253\u55b7\u568f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u591f\u62b5\u5f97\u4f4f\uff0c\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u7740\u51c9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5404\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u90fd\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u82f1\u9551\u66fe\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7684\u9876\u5c16\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4f46\u82f1\u56fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u800c\u79ef\u5b58\u5927\u91cf\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9893\u9761\uff0c\u90fd\u4f7f\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u6d88\u5931\u6b86\u5c3d\u3002\u5f53\u4eca\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e0b\uff0c\u534e\u5e9c\u63a5\u7ba1\u300c\u4e24\u623f\u300d\u800c\u5927\u589e\u8d1f\u503a\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u5f53\u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u547d\u8fd0\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u4f1a\u6b65\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u540e\u5c18\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u8d27\u5e01\u3002\u672c\u7f51\u9999\u6e2f22\u65e5\u62a5\u9053<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7f8e\u6559\u6388: Chimerica\u65f6\u4ee3\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3 2008-9-22 \u3010\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u6559\u6388\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u6587\u89c1\u8fd9\u91cc\u3002\u4e24\u7bc7\u5ef6\u4f38\u9605\u8bfb\u5982\u4e0b\u3011 1.Great Crash? 2. Chimerica\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f \u3010\u5927\u516c\u7f51\u8baf\u3011\u4fe1\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u5377\u8d77\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u5578\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u95f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u6388\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u5728\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u64b0\u6587\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u524a\u51cf\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u79f0\u9738\u5168\u7403\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bba\u8c03\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u8f6c\u5f31\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u671b\u4e8e\u4e0d\u8db320\u5e74\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u6587\u6c47\u62a5\u4eca\u5929\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u5148\u540e\u63a5\u7ba1\u300c\u4e24\u623f\u300d\u548c\u5168\u7f8e\u6700\u5927\u578b\u4fdd\u9669\u96c6\u56e2\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u96c6\u56e2\uff08AIG\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u4e4b\u56fd\u6709\u5316\uff0c\u5957\u7528\u56fd\u9645\u8457\u540d\u5927\u7092\u5bb6\u7d22\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u300c\u5e02\u573a\u57fa\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u300d\u5c31\u6b64\u6b65\u5411\u672b\u8def\uff0c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6743\u529b\u6d17\u724c\u3002 \u56fd\u6c11\u5b58\u6b3e\u5360\u538b\u5012\u4f18\u52bf \u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e24\u56fd\u66fe\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u706b\u8f66\u5934\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d1f\u8d23\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d1f\u8d23\u5b58\u6b3e\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e24\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GNP\uff09\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u6c11\u5b58\u6b3e\u6240\u5360\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u6709\u6240\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u75311990\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u7684\u903e5%\uff0c\u8dcc\u81f32005\u5e74\u7684\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u7684\u56fd\u6c11\u5b58\u6b3e\u7531\u4e0d\u8db330%\uff0c\u5347\u81f345%\uff0c\u4e24\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u300c\u4e92\u5229\u5171\u751f\u300d\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f17\u683c\u68ee\u66f4\u521b\u9020\u65b0\u8bcd\u300cChimerica\u300d\u6765\u5f62\u5bb9\u4e24\u56fd\u3002 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