{"id":3771,"date":"2005-04-20T16:00:26","date_gmt":"2005-04-20T20:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/formerlyknownas\/2005\/04\/20\/the-new-popes-life-expectancy"},"modified":"2011-08-05T14:57:47","modified_gmt":"2011-08-05T18:57:47","slug":"the-new-popes-life-expectancy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/2005\/04\/20\/the-new-popes-life-expectancy\/","title":{"rendered":"the new pope&#8217;s life expectancy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a name=\"a3695\"><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/media-cyber.law.harvard.edu\/blogs\/static\/ethicalesq\/Benedict16.gif\" alt=\"Benedict16\" \/> <\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> <strong><em>B<\/em><\/strong>ecause he is 78 years old, a\u00a0lot of commentators seem to think that the new Pope, <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/2005\/0421\/p01s03-woeu.html\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">Benedict XVI<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">, is likely to have a very short term, in a placeholder or interim papacy.<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"><span style=\"font-size: x-small\">Norm Pattis at <em><a href=\"http:\/\/federalism.typepad.com\/crime_federalism\/2005\/04\/charisma_is_a_m.html\"><span style=\"color: #000000\">Crime &amp; Federalism<\/span><\/a><\/em> even penned a post calling him &#8220;Pope Rigor <\/span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\">Mortis I,&#8221;<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> and offering a long-distance, photographically-based, negative assessment of Benedict&#8217;s &#8220;intellectual vigor.&#8221; [Norm, there are a <em>lot<\/em> of octagenarians with intellectual<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> vigor and a lot of brash younger folk without it.\u00a0 I&#8217;ve seen no sign that Joseph Ratzinger&#8217;s much-praised and prolific brain has been in decline.]<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 60px\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">growing old&#8211;<br \/>\nby the hearth&#8217;s light<br \/>\npiecework<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 60px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 60px\">&#8230; <a href=\"http:\/\/cat.xula.edu\/issa\/searchissa.php?sorter=date&amp;s_string=old+piecework&amp;season=&amp;s_date=\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;color: #ff0000;font-size: xx-small\">ISSA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;font-size: xx-small\"> , translated by David G. Lanoue<\/span><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div style=\"text-align: left\">\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">Although I&#8217;m hoping <em>RiskProf<\/em> <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/riskprof.typepad.com\/\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;color: #000000;font-size: x-small\">Martin Grace<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> will use his expertise and\/or contacts to<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> come up with more specific LE numbers for Benedict XVI, I&#8217;ve decided to do some quick <span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\">research.\u00a0\u00a0 I discovered:<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">The average life expectancy of a male in the U.S. who lives to be <\/span>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">78 is <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/data\/nvsr\/nvsr53\/nvsr53_06.pdf\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">8.7 additional years<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">. (National Vital Statistics Reports,Vol. 53,<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> No.6, Nov. 10,2004, p. 16, Table 5).<\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">However, based on nationality, we might expect Benedict XVI to <\/span>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">have a slightly longer life expectancy, since the mortality tables show that<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> the overall life expectancy in Germany, Joseph <\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">Ratzinger&#8217;s\u00a0birthplace,\u00a0is 77.4 years; and, in his most recent country of residency,\u00a0Italy, it&#8217;s 79.0<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> years.\u00a0 The life expectancy in U.S.A. is <em>lower<\/em> &#8212; 77.1 years. [from U.S. Census Bureau&#8217;s <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/geography.about.com\/gi\/dynamic\/offsite.htm?site=http:\/\/www.census.gov\/ftp\/pub\/ipc\/www\/idbsum.html\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;color: #000000;font-size: x-small\">International Data Base<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">, via <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/geography.about.com\/library\/weekly\/aa042000b.htm\"><span style=\"color: #000000;font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"><em>About.com<\/em> geography<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> page].<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> <\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">Of course, there are other factors that might further prolong Benedict&#8217;s life expectancy<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> and\/or\u00a0active lifespan: <\/span><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">&#8211; education level<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">&#8211; clean living<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">&#8211; access to the very best health care (at no cost)<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">&#8211; prayers of hundreds of millions of the faithful<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">&#8211; divine intervention<\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">So, as he has a job with no mandatory retirement age, those expecting Benedict XVI <\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> to be just a shooting star should probably choose a simile featuring a more-permanent <\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">heavenly body &#8212; and react, plan, celebrate, worry, etc., accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"><strong><em><span style=\"color: red\">update<\/span><\/em><\/strong> (April 22, 2005):\u00a0 The gracious <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/riskprof.typepad.com\/tort\/2005\/04\/musings_on_life.html\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"><em>RiskProf<\/em> has responded<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"> to our request for his<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"> expert opinion &#8212; giving his own musings on eternal life expectancies and ancient<span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"> Romans.\u00a0 Martin also linked to an <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/apnews.myway.com\/\/article\/20050421\/D89JFOI00.html\"><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;color: black\">AP story<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif\"> that discusses the state of Pope Benedict&#8217;s<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\"> health.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\" dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\">the old priest<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\">dressed like a dandy &#8212;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\">spring mountain<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">nowhere, nowhere<br \/>\ncan a young scarecrow<br \/>\nbe found<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\" dir=\"ltr\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span style=\"font-family: Geneva,Arial,Sans-Serif;font-size: x-small\">my old age&#8211;<br \/>\neven facing a scarecrow<br \/>\nashamed<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\" dir=\"ltr\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-left: 30px\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8230; &#8230; <a href=\"http:\/\/cat.xula.edu\/issa\/searchissa.php?sorter=date&amp;s_string=old+piecework&amp;season=&amp;s_date=\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;color: #ff0000;font-size: xx-small\">ISSA<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;font-size: xx-small\"> , translated by David G. Lanoue<\/span><\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;font-size: x-small\"> <\/span><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span><span><span><em><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif\">by <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/stories\/storyReader$3053\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;color: #000000\">dagosan<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif\">:<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span><span><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif\"> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div dir=\"ltr\"><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\">my long-lived elders &#8212;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\">a couple extra decades<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\">of dementia<\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><span><span><span style=\"font-size: x-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial\"><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman;font-size: xx-small\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;font-size: x-small\"><em><span style=\"font-family: Times New Roman,Times,Serif;font-size: xx-small\"> [April 20, 2005]<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><\/span><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Because he is 78 years old, a\u00a0lot of commentators seem to think that the new Pope, Benedict XVI, is likely to have a very short term, in a placeholder or interim papacy. Norm Pattis at Crime &amp; Federalism even penned a post calling him &#8220;Pope Rigor Mortis I,&#8221; and offering a long-distance, photographically-based, negative assessment [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":94,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2926],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-pre-06-2006"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6kP1R-YP","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3771","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/94"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3771"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3771\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13254,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3771\/revisions\/13254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/ethicalesq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}