{"id":513,"date":"2005-09-09T21:24:16","date_gmt":"2005-09-10T01:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/dbnews\/2005\/09\/09\/reasonable-republicans-restless\/"},"modified":"2005-09-09T21:24:16","modified_gmt":"2005-09-10T01:24:16","slug":"reasonable-republicans-restless","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/2005\/09\/09\/reasonable-republicans-restless\/","title":{"rendered":"Reasonable Republicans Restless"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a name='a6964'><\/a><\/p>\n<table width=\"537\" border=\"0\">\n<tr>\n<td height=\"394\">\n<p align=\"justify\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cyber.law.harvard.edu\/blogs\/static\/dowbrigade\/cokinmat.jpg\" width=\"213\" height=\"320\" align=\"left\">If, as they say, the three most important<br \/>\n        factors in business success are location, location, and location, then<br \/>\n        the three most important factors in political success are timing, timing<br \/>\n        and timing.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">The Dowbrigade has long been predicting <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.law.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/2004\/11\/16\">a schism in<br \/>\n        the Republican Party<\/a> sometime before the elections in &#8217;08, between the<br \/>\n        Radical Republicans (neo-cons, fundamentalists and the oil industry)<br \/>\n        and the Reasonable Republicans (basically everyone who still believes<br \/>\n        in Evolution, funded by the traditional Republican money wells like Banking<br \/>\n        and Insurance).<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">We are convinced that the Radical Republicans will attempt<br \/>\n        to keep their revolution going by pushing through the nomination of members<br \/>\n        of their inner circle. They lack the balls to go with Condi for the top<br \/>\n        job, but will probably put her on the ticket to siphon off black and<br \/>\n        female voters from the Dems. We wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see First Brother<br \/>\n        Jeb at the top, especially if arch-fiend Dick Cheney decides to stay<br \/>\n        in the shadows.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">The Democrats, sensing weakness in the White House,<br \/>\n        are almost sure to nominate Hilary, hoping to recapture the Presidency<br \/>\n        in a great leap forward for multiple liberal causes. The feeling here<br \/>\n        is that they will have once again tragically misread the pulse of the<br \/>\n        people, and the 2008 election will mark the demise of the Democrats as<br \/>\n        a major American party.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">The &quot;X&quot; factor are the full third of American voters<br \/>\n        who are truly independents, as well as those Republicans who still believe<br \/>\n        in traditional Republican values like non-interventionism and balanced<br \/>\n        budgets, plus millions who normally don&#8217;t bother to vote.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">By and large, these people will be equally horrified<br \/>\n        by the prospect of seeing Hillary and the Sisterhood in the Big House,<br \/>\n        as by the idea of four more years of war, gutting the economy and government<br \/>\n        by the oil industry. Thereby creating a historic opportunity, not for<br \/>\n        a new political party, but for a major part of the traditional Republican<br \/>\n        Party to make a clean break  and field their own candidates.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">A ticket of John McCain and Colin Powell, for example,<br \/>\n        could sweep the field, drawing from all of the traditional parties support<br \/>\n        as well as scads of new recruits. We would bet they could beat Jeb and<br \/>\n        Condi. Hillary would finish a poor third.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">The main question in our mind was when the great schism<br \/>\n        would take place.&nbsp; We were imagining arcane machinations to create<br \/>\n        an incident, or a court case, or a crisis to dramatically expose the<br \/>\n        deficiencies and un American extremism of the current cabal, probably<br \/>\n        some time next year.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Then we realized the illogic of waiting for or manufacturing<br \/>\n        a crisis when there was one built into the calendar &#8211; the mid-term elections<br \/>\n        in November of &#8217;06. A disastrous showing by Bush-supported candidates<br \/>\n        and radical conservatives, perhaps combined with an economic or military<br \/>\n        mini-crisis, would be sufficient provocation for a split of the Republican<br \/>\n        Party.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Almost certainly, the moderates will make an attempt<br \/>\n        to win control of the Republican Party apparatus in time to choose one<br \/>\n        of their own in &#8217;08, but the betting here is that the Bushites will hold<br \/>\n        firm to the reins of a reduced but fanatical core following.&nbsp; They<br \/>\n        have been spending much time and effort lately shoring up their grip<br \/>\n        on the party&#8217;s political machinery. If so, the split is inevitable.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">The minuet is already in motion.&nbsp; Check out this<br \/>\n        interview, given this week to ABC News by Colin Powell:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p align=\"justify\">Sept. 8, 2005 &#8211; In 35 years of service as a soldier,<br \/>\n          Colin Powell earned a reputation as the quintessential disciplined warrior.<br \/>\n          As Secretary of State in President Bush&#8217;s first term, Powell was widely<br \/>\n          seen as a disciplined, moderate &#8211; and loyal &#8211; voice for the administration.<br \/>\n          Now out of government service, Powell is airing openly his disappointments<br \/>\n          and frustration on everything from the invasion of Iraq to the federal<br \/>\n        response to Hurricane Katrina.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p align=\"justify\">from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/newsitems\/200509\/s1457260.htm\">ABC<\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">In political warfare, just as in military warfare, one<br \/>\n        has to get the pieces into position, set the stage, so to speak, before<br \/>\n        the real action starts. Political junkies, stay tuned.&nbsp; This one&#8217;s<br \/>\n        going to be wild.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If, as they say, the three most important factors in business success are location, location, and location, then the three most important factors in political success are timing, timing and timing. The Dowbrigade has long been predicting a schism in &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/2005\/09\/09\/reasonable-republicans-restless\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":299,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1442],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-serious-news"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/299"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.blogs.harvard.edu\/dowbrigade\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}